Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
396
FNUS74 KEPZ 122040
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Lolo Fire...GNF
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
240 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0600 MDT on July 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Slightly better storm chances are expected for Saturday afternoon
(about 40%) with mainly clear skies in the morning. Scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are expected for tomorrow
afternoon with gusty and erratic winds possible from outflows,
otherwise winds will be light and shifting throughout the day. The
activity dissipates around sunset. Fair overnight recoveries are
forecast for Saturday night. For Sunday, winds shift more north-
northwesterly but remain light. Moisture and precip chances
increase on Sunday as temperatures remain warm.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
cloudy (45-55 percent). Scattered showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the
morning becoming light, then becoming east
around 5 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds possible near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10600 ft AGL increasing to 12300 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 9 mph shifting to the
northeast around 8 mph in the late morning and
early afternoon, then shifting to the east late
in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (14600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (87900 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........9 9 13 42 52 48
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 30 40
LAL.............1 1 1 1 4 5
Temp............61 65 72 78 81 82
RH..............44 38 30 24 20 18
20 ft wind......SW 5 SW 5 W 4 NE 4 NE 4 E 5
20 ft wind gust.9 9 8 7 7 8
Mix hgt (ft)....100 2100 4600 9600 11300 12300
Transport wind..SW 9 SW 9 NE 8 NE 8 E 8 E 8
Haines index....3 3 3 4 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 5 33 73 88 88
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Scattered
showers and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southwest around 6 mph in the late evening and
overnight, then becoming light after 3 am.
Gusty and erratic winds possible near
thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......10700 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL in the late
evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 8 mph shifting to the
southwest 9 to 10 mph in the late evening and
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (74900 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (100 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........56 56 54 49 49 33
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).40 30 20 10 10 10
LAL.............5 5 4 1 1 1
Temp............80 74 69 66 64 62
RH..............19 28 37 43 45 48
20 ft wind......SE 5 SE 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 4
20 ft wind gust.7 7 10 10 10 8
Mix hgt (ft)....10700 2700 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..SE 8 SE 8 SW 10 SW 10 W 9 W 9
Haines index....5 5 5 4 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..75 25 0 0 0 0
Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Showers and
thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 5.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northwest 5 to 6 mph in
the late morning and early afternoon, then
shifting to the east around 5 mph late in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the
northeast 8 to 11 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (17600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (97700 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........12 13 50 62
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE LIKELY
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 30 60
LAL.............1 1 4 5
Temp............61 69 79 82
RH..............46 37 24 19
20 FT wind......SW 4G7 NW 5G10 N 6G10 E 5G8
Mix hgt (ft)....100 2000 9900 11500
Transport wind..NW 9 NW 9 NE 11 E 8
Haines index....3 3 3 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 18 98 90
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs around 80. West winds around 6 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs around 80. Northwest winds around 5 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows around 60.
Highs around 80. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417826.5/EPZ
.DELDT 07/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov