Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
996
FNUS74 KEPZ 122350
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Paramount...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
550 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 MDT on July 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
For Saturday, moisture will decrease from what it was today.
However, there will still be a slight chance for showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any storms that do develop
have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and strong gusty
winds. The 20ft winds will be light except in and around
thunderstorms with the temperatures above the normal. Any
lingering storms from the day should diminish by the early evening
hours. Saturday overnight recovery will be good. For the rest of
the period, the chances for showers and thunderstorms will
increase each consecutive day. The winds will be light to breezy
and temperatures at or above the normal. With that said, there
will be no fire weather concerns through the period.
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (50-60 percent) then becoming sunny
(20-30 percent). Isolated showers and
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
early in the afternoon, then shifting to the
southeast around 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South around 6 mph shifting to the east in the
late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (92200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to very good (116000
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........6 25 53 53 24
Weather cov.....NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 20 20 30
LAL.............1 1 3 3 4
Temp............62 74 81 85 85
RH..............48 32 23 20 18
20 ft wind......SW 2 W 3 NE 5 NE 5 SE 6
20 ft wind gust. 7 9 9 10
Mix hgt (ft)....2200 10400 10400 11800 11800
Transport wind..S 6 NE 9 NE 9 E 11 E 11
Haines index....3 3 3 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..11 92 92 116 116
Ventrate Cat....POOR GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
evening becoming light. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East around 11 mph shifting to the southwest 7
to 9 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (87000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3000 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........24 24 21 21 21 13
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD SCTTRD NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 30 10 10 10
LAL.............4 4 3 1 1 1
Temp............84 77 69 64 61 59
RH..............18 25 36 43 49 53
20 ft wind......SE 5 SE 5 S 2 S 2 S 2 S 2
20 ft wind gust.10 10 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....9700 9700 500 500 500 500
Transport wind..E 11 E 11 S 9 S 9 SW 7 SW 7
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..87 87 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east around 6 mph in the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 8 mph shifting to the east 9
to 10 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (97000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........9 24 64 61
Weather cov.....NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 50 50
LAL.............1 1 5 5
Temp............58 68 84 87
RH..............53 40 21 18
20 FT wind......SW 2G3 S 3G8 E 6G10 SE 6G12
Mix hgt (ft)....2200 2200 10900 11700
Transport wind..NW 8 NW 8 NE 10 E 9
Haines index....3 3 3 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 16 90 97
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR GOOD GOOD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the mid
50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Light winds.
$$
Forecaster...TEXEIRA
Requested by...NMSDC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417907.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/12/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov