Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
027
FNUS74 KEPZ 131540
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Spring...GILA NF USFS
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
940 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on July 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Low chances for rain today with a brief isolated storms possible over
the higher mountains this afternoon and Sunday. Min RH`s in the upper
teens to lower 20`s in the burn area. Winds will be generally light
with a southerly component in direction. Light and variable winds are
expected tonight. With similar southerly winds on Sunday. For the
first half of next week, moisture will begin to slowly increase over
the area, which will increase min rh values into the mid 20s percent
range and will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms to
scattered in the vicinity of the burn area. There will be a risk for
gusty and erratic outflow winds each afternoon and evening associated
with the thunderstorms. Otherwise, winds next week, will remain fairly
light. Daytime vent rates today and Sunday will be good to very good.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Isolated showers and
thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest
around 6 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (95700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (108300 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........5 8 8 39
Weather cov.....NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Weather type....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE ISOLTD ISOLTD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).0 20 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 4
Temp............72 79 84 86
RH..............30 24 20 18
20 ft wind......W 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6
20 ft wind gust.12 14 14 14
Mix hgt (ft)....10100 10100 11700 11700
Transport wind..NE 10 NE 10 SE 11 SE 11
Haines index....3 4 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..96 96 108 108
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Scattered showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening, then
isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the
evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................4 until 2100, then 3 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....Around 61.
Max humidity........41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms in the
evening.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (94300 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (3300 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........32 32 22 19 19 16
Weather cov.....SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........SCTTRD SCTTRD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).30 30 20 10 10 0
LAL.............4 4 6 1 1 1
Temp............85 76 70 67 65 63
RH..............19 25 31 33 37 38
20 ft wind......S 6 S 6 S 6 SE 5 SE 5 SE 3
20 ft wind gust.14 14 12 12 12 9
Mix hgt (ft)....10500 10500 500 500 500 500
Transport wind..S 10 S 10 S 9 S 9 SE 6 SE 6
Haines index....5 5 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..94 94 4 4 3 3
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent) then becoming partly
sunny (50-60 percent). Numerous showers and
scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 4.
Max temperature.....Around 87.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 6 mph in
the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 6 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (18700 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (105400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........8 4 26 54
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NUMRUS NUMRUS
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE SCTTRD SCTTRD
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 60 60
LAL.............1 1 5 5
Temp............62 69 82 86
RH..............38 33 22 20
20 FT wind......E 3G9 NW 4G12 SW 6G15 SW 6G14
Mix hgt (ft)....3100 3100 10100 10300
Transport wind..NE 6 NE 6 NE 12 SE 11
Haines index....4 4 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19 19 105 100
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD GOOD
$$
Forecaster...LUNDEEN
Requested by...Bob Culbreth
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417782.13/EPZ
.DELDT 07/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL bob.culbreth@mt.gov