Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
419
FNUS74 KEPZ 060123
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Lolo Fira...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
723 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MDT on July 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Drier air will be moving into the region, but we will still see a
slight chance for a thunderstorm Saturday afternoon. Min RH`s both
Saturday and Sunday will be 7 to 10%. Winds on Saturday will be
from the southwest at around 10 mph and winds on Sunday will be
from the west at around 10 mph as well. Vent rates will be poor in
the AM, but by the afternoon the rates will improve to very good
or excellent.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
south 7 to 8 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......10700 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....North 9 to 12 mph shifting to the southeast
around 8 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (103200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........5 8 8 10 7 7
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............75 66 62 59 56 54
RH..............10 15 16 21 26 36
20 ft wind......NW 5 W 5 W 5 SE 7 S 8 S 8
20 ft wind gust.12 10 10 15 16 16
Mix hgt (ft)....10700 10700 100 100 100 100
Transport wind..NW 12 NW 12 N 9 N 9 SE 8 SE 8
Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..103 103 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms early in the afternoon.
Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1500, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
northwest 6 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......12100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 7 mph shifting to the
northwest 14 to 18 mph in the late morning and
afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16400 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(160900 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........5 6 15 30
Weather cov.....NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE NONE S CHC CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 3
Temp............54 67 78 82
RH..............43 30 13 9
20 FT wind......SW 7G15 SW 6G13 NW 6G13 NW 8G16
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 2300 10200 12100
Transport wind..SW 7 SW 7 NW 14 NW 18
Haines index....6 5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 16 161 201
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR EXNT EXNT
.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 56.
Max humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......10700 ft AGL decreasing to 100 ft AGL in the
late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 11 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (171800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(900 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........20 7 8 6
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............79 67 62 58
RH..............9 15 20 23
20 FT wind......NW 8G16 W 6G14 W 5G9 W 5G9
Mix hgt (ft)....10700 10700 100 100
Transport wind..NW 16 NW 16 NW 12 W 11
Haines index....6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..172 172 1 1
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........7 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11300 ft AGL increasing to 13800 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 11 to 18 mph increasing to around 24
mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(203000 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........5 5 5
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............56 74 85
RH..............30 17 8
20 FT wind......W 5G9 W 6G14 NW 10G22
Mix hgt (ft)....1500 11300 13800
Transport wind..NW 11 NW 18 NW 24
Haines index....5 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..16 203 287
Ventrate Cat....POOR EXNT EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. West
winds around 7 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
mid 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. Southeast winds around 7 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
upper 50s. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds around 5 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BRICE
Requested by...USFS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2417492.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/05/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov