693
FXUS64 KEPZ 062030
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
230 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Active weather will continue next week with a little break on
Sunday. The main concerns with the storms that do develop would
be strong gusty winds, hail and isolated flash flooding. The
temperatures will be the warmest on Sunday with much of the
lowland areas in the triple digits. A backdoor cold front will
push through on Monday, which will aide in lowering our
temperatures by several degrees from what they would be at on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Currently, the skies are mostly sunny with just a few isolated
storms across the northern portions of our CWA. The winds are
generally light with a few breezes and the temperatures on the
warm side. For the rest of this afternoon, there will be more
chances for showers and thunderstorms especially across the
southern CWA. The main concerns with these storms will be strong
gusty winds, hail and isolated flash flooding. For tonight, any
lingering storms will diminish by around 9 pm. For the rest of the
evening and overnight hours, expect quiet weather conditions. The
winds will be light to breezy, the skies mostly clear with the
low temperatures on Sunday morning above the normal for this time
of the year. For Sunday, conditions will be much more quiet than
they would be this afternoon. Dry air will move in as high
pressure builds in across the Pacific West. Due to this, the
chances for storms on Sunday will be less than 15%. Did not
mentioned any storms in the forecast on Sunday as PWAT values
would be way below the climatological normal. With ridging aloft,
a decrease in cloud coverage and precipitation, the high
temperatures especially in the lowlands would be 6 to 12 degrees
above the normal for this time of the year. Due to this, a Heat
Advisory continue to be in effect from 11 AM Sunday until 6 AM
Monday.

For the rest of the period, we will see daily chances for
afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Also, a back door cold front
will try to make its way across much of our CWA, which will bring
cooler temperatures mainly east of the Continental Divide.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop on Monday afternoon as the
front pushes through our area. Tuesday through Saturday there
would be some residual and advected moisture that will aide in
storm chances each day. The Pacific ridge will meander across the
Pacific South through the middle of next week. This would allow
for the lowland temperatures to not be as hot as they were the
past couple of weeks; however, the center of this ridge will
gradually move over the Rockies allowing for lowland temperatures
to creep back into the triple digits toward the end of the week
and into the weekend. As of now, the only way for the temperatures
for El Paso would not reach triple digits is if an easterly wave
moves across the southern periphery of the ridge. There is
uncertainty that this will occur with the GFS suggesting it
occurring while the ECMWF keeps the wave further to our south.
Whether the easterly wave passes over us or not, we will see
active weather conditions toward the end of the week and into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW100-SCT250. The winds are generally light at
this time and should continue to be so at least across most of the
sites. However, the winds at KTCS is low end breezy 11-13 kts
with gust up to 21 kts and from the southwest through 00Z Sunday.
The winds will become light at this site and remain generally
light across the rest of the terminals thereafter. There maybe a
few TS in the VCTS and even across the sites between 19 and 01Z
Sunday (not mentioned in the TAFs due to low confidence). Will
amend the TAFs when possible should TS occur within 10 miles of
the terminals. There will be no reduction in the VSBY across the
runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sat Jul 6 2024

For the rest of this afternoon, there will be a chance for showers
and thunderstorms across the much of the zones. The main concerns
with these storms are gusty winds, hail and isolated flash
flooding. Any storms that linger this evening should diminish by
around 9 pm. Tonight recovery will be fair to good. For Sunday,
dry air will move in, which will limit our precipitation chances.
The 20ft winds will be light to low end breezy and temperatures
above the normal. Sunday overnight recovery will be fair to
excellent. For the rest of the period, there will be daily
chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The
winds will be light to windy and the temperatures below the normal
mainly east of the Divide. With that being said, fire weather
conditions will be elevated to near critical on Sunday with no
concerns the rest of the period.

The min RHs on Sunday will be below 15% areawide. The min RHs on
Monday will be below 15% west of the Divide and vice versa to the
east of the Divide. The ventilation rates will be very good to
excellent on Sunday then poor to excellent on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 106  76  99 /  30   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            69  99  68  93 /  20   0   0  30
Las Cruces               71 105  71  99 /  20   0  10  10
Alamogordo               70 101  65  95 /  10   0   0  20
Cloudcroft               54  78  49  70 /  10   0  10  60
Truth or Consequences    67 102  69  94 /  10   0  10  20
Silver City              65  96  65  93 /  20  10  10  30
Deming                   67 104  69  99 /  30   0  10  10
Lordsburg                68 102  70 101 /  20   0  10  20
West El Paso Metro       76 103  74  98 /  30   0  10  10
Dell City                70 103  69  93 /  20   0   0  20
Fort Hancock             72 105  71 100 /  30   0   0  20
Loma Linda               70  96  68  88 /  30   0   0  20
Fabens                   74 104  74  99 /  30   0   0  10
Santa Teresa             72 102  71  96 /  30   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           75 102  74  96 /  20   0  10  20
Jornada Range            66 102  66  96 /  20   0  10  20
Hatch                    65 105  66  99 /  20   0  10  20
Columbus                 72 104  74 100 /  40   0  10  10
Orogrande                70 100  68  93 /  30   0  10  20
Mayhill                  59  90  54  75 /  10   0  10  60
Mescalero                58  89  54  80 /  10   0  10  60
Timberon                 56  88  54  79 /  20   0  10  50
Winston                  57  94  56  88 /  10   0  10  30
Hillsboro                65 100  66  92 /  20  10  10  30
Spaceport                62 102  64  95 /  10   0  10  30
Lake Roberts             58  96  60  93 /  20  10  10  40
Hurley                   63  99  65  95 /  20  10  10  30
Cliff                    63 105  64 104 /  10  10  10  30
Mule Creek               67  99  67  97 /  10  10  10  20
Faywood                  65  99  66  93 /  20  10  10  30
Animas                   68 102  70 102 /  20   0  10  20
Hachita                  67 102  70 100 /  30   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           67 101  69 100 /  30  10  10  20
Cloverdale               65  96  66  97 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407-
     409>411-417-427>429.

     Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira