341
FXUS64 KEPZ 042344
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
544 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Thunderstorms will continue to be an almost daily occurrence for the
next 7 days with the exception of Sunday which looks dry.
Temperatures will remain near normal each day, again except Sunday
when the dry air allows highs to get back above 100 degrees for the
lowlands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Overall, the models in decent agreement through the period with
upper air pattern showing upper high over the West Coast shifting
very slowly eastward. The upper air pattern keeps us in some kind of
northerly component through the period.

Tonight thunderstorm activity looks to remain over the far east
where we have some low level convergence, but can`t rule out an
outflow heading west that could trigger some isolated storms into
El Paso County. A few showers may lift up into Hidalgo County as
well. For Friday, easterly flow will keep some modest moisture
over the area and storms will develop over the Sacs and outflows
pushing south and west will trigger additional storms at least
east of the Rio Grande, but think a few could fire on the Blacks
and push SW but with lesser coverage. Highs tomorrow will be about
the same or slightly cooler than today with most lowland areas
remaining below 100 degrees. Not much different for Saturday
except western areas will see a little greater storm coverage as
there will be better low level moisture pushing in from the east.

Sunday looks to be a down day as flow turns more NW through a deep
layer and moisture mixes out with dew points dropping into the 30s
for much of the CWA. This will also be the hottest day of the period
with high temperatures into the 100-108 range across the lowlands.

Upper flow turns almost straight northerly for Mon/Tue with a nice
trough moving through the Plains into the Great Lakes which
brings a low level easterly flow back to the area. The models do
differ on the strength of this push with the operational GFS very
strong with the NE to E push Monday and keeping it in Tue while
the EC keeps a weaker push just into the eastern areas Mon and not
much better as the moisture remains shallow for Tue. Operational
GFS is on the extreme for cooler/more moist air arriving compared
to it`s ensemble mean and the EC Ensemble. Will go more toward the
mean as far as temps and pops go. Should still see
scattered(40-50% coverage in the Sacs with lesser in the Gila)
develop with more isolated storms on the lowlands later in the
day. Temperatures will fall off some with most areas struggling to
reach much above 100 degrees.

Little change for Wed/Thu except that the moisture will have had
more time to push east and coverage looks more focused out west by
midweek. Even though we have an E to SE low level flow, it`s not a
good `monsoonal` pattern with the northerly flow aloft and the
trajectories at the low levels never come directly off the Gulf of
Mexico. PW`s for next week really don`t get above about 1-1.2" with
the drier air aloft around.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Isolated thunderstorms continue to the east of KELP. Hi-res
models continue to show a slow down trend in convection over the
next 3 to 6 hours. The only impacts may be some gusty outflow
winds at KELP, otherwise winds tonight will be light. We will see
winds come around to the east and we will see an increase in
moisture on Friday. There will be a good chance for thunderstorms
mainly east of the Rio Grande Friday afternoon. We will continue
to have some mid and high ceilings of SCT-BKN120-250 through this
evening, but we will have unlimited ceilings later tonight and
through most of the day on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Daily showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday with
temperatures near normal during this time. RH`s will be in the
mid teens to around 30%, but winds will remain light. A dry air
intrusion moves in for Sunday with northwest flow moving in briefly.
Temperatures will get above 100 degrees for most of the lowlands
with RH`s into the single digits to lower teens most area. Moisture
pushes back in Mon/Tue with daily storm chances resuming, starting
moreso out east and then pushing west later in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  80  99  76 100 /  20  50  40  20
Sierra Blanca            73  91  71  92 /  50  60  40  30
Las Cruces               71  98  71  97 /  20  30  30  20
Alamogordo               68  95  66  95 /  10  40  30  20
Cloudcroft               53  69  52  71 /  10  70  30  40
Truth or Consequences    70  97  69  95 /   0  20  20  20
Silver City              64  93  66  90 /  20  30  20  40
Deming                   69 100  70  98 /  10  30  30  20
Lordsburg                69  99  69  99 /  20  20  30  30
West El Paso Metro       78  97  74  97 /  20  40  40  20
Dell City                72  95  69  95 /  20  50  50  20
Fort Hancock             73  97  71  99 /  40  60  40  20
Loma Linda               71  89  68  90 /  20  60  50  20
Fabens                   74  98  72  99 /  30  50  40  20
Santa Teresa             73  95  72  97 /  20  40  40  20
White Sands HQ           74  95  72  97 /  20  50  30  30
Jornada Range            63  96  63  96 /  10  50  30  20
Hatch                    66  99  66  98 /  10  30  30  30
Columbus                 72  99  73  97 /  20  30  40  20
Orogrande                74  93  69  94 /  10  50  30  20
Mayhill                  58  78  59  82 /  10  70  30  50
Mescalero                56  81  56  82 /  10  70  30  40
Timberon                 57  79  54  80 /  20  70  30  40
Winston                  58  88  57  88 /   0  30  20  30
Hillsboro                68  95  63  93 /  10  30  30  30
Spaceport                60  95  61  95 /   0  30  30  30
Lake Roberts             51  92  55  91 /  10  30  30  40
Hurley                   65  96  63  93 /  10  30  30  30
Cliff                    60 102  61  99 /  10  30  30  30
Mule Creek               57  99  59  96 /  10  20  20  30
Faywood                  66  92  65  91 /  20  30  30  30
Animas                   68 100  69  98 /  20  30  30  30
Hachita                  68  98  68  97 /  20  20  40  20
Antelope Wells           67  99  68  97 /  20  40  50  30
Cloverdale               64  94  66  93 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
     NMZ415-416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice