043
FXUS64 KEPZ 031122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
522 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Rain chances will begin to slowly decrease over the next few days
as slightly drier air moves in from the northwest. By this
weekend, temperatures will be warm, running a few degrees above
the seasonal average with daily isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

High pressure aloft over the Deep South and Southern Mississippi
River Valley, along with a strengthening upper level high off the
coast of California will be the synoptic scale features driving the
weather locally across the Desert SW through the weekend.

The deep Monsoonal moisture that`s been giving active weather over
the past several days will remain over the Borderland Region on
Wednesday. Both GFS/ECMWF deterministic models and the respected
ensemble suites continue to show deep moisture across the local area
with PW values between 1.2-1.5" and surface dewpoint temps in the
low 60s. However, high-res model guidance isn`t too excited with the
prospects of seeing scattered to numerous showers and storms this
afternoon and evening. Cloud coverage from yesterday evening`s
activity will likely stick around through the morning and into the
afternoon hours across most of the area. Ultimately keeping
thermodynamic conditions stable with less sun and slightly cooler
temperatures. RAP analysis forecast soundings show convective
temperatures in the middle to upper 90s during the afternoon, as of
now with the expected cloud cover, temperatures look to fall
short of the Convective temps. That said, isolated to scattered
showers and storms will be possible across the area, especially if
we can see some sunshine. The area of focus will be over the Gila
region and areas west of the Divide.

On Thursday, the strengthening high pressure aforementioned above
will move onshore across western CONUS with it`s eastern
periphery nosing into the Four Corners vicinity.
North/northwesterly flow will increase as a result, pushing the
deep Monsoonal moisture slowly towards the south and southeast.
This dry influence along with increasing 500mb heights will
decrease rain chances across the northern portions of the CWA with
the focus for isolated to low-end scattered showers and storms
across West Texas and along the International Border. Isolated
storms will be possible over the Gila and Sacs due to orographics.
Temperatures on Thursday will warm above 100 degrees.

For Friday and into the weekend, daily afternoon and evening
isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible. Temperatures
each afternoon will hover right around the 100 degree mark with
light winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 517 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Light showers will linger through the morning with VCSH in KELP
TAF through 18Z. If showers occur over terminals, they will remain
light with no reductions to VIS. Otherwise, VFR conditions can be
expected through the period with FEW-SCT at 10 kft and BKN-OVC at
20-25 kft. Skies will become generally SCT at 10 kft by 18Z.
Shower and storm activity during the afternoon and evening hours
will be isolated in coverage with low confidence in direct impacts
at terminals, AMENDs will be issued if needed. Greatest confidence
is over areas along and west of the Continental Divide. Winds
generally light and VRB through the morning, becoming W/SW during
the afternoon at 7-12 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 254 AM MDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Fire weather concerns are LOW on Wednesday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and
evening. Min RH values will be greater than 25 percent areawide, 30-
50 percent over the mountains. Temperatures will be a few degrees
cooler than yesterday with partly to mostly cloudy skies. The
possibility for new lightning starts are low due to higher soil
moisture within the mountains and forested regions. Winds will be
light under weak west/northwest flow.

Slightly drier conditions expected on Thursday through the weekend
as drier air noses in from the northwest. Min RH values become
critically low over the Gila Region and NMZ112 on Thursday. Daytime
winds will remain light, predominately diurnal and terrain
influenced. Vent rates will range from Fair to Good today and
Thursday, becoming Good to Very Good this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  99  80 103  80 /  40  30  40  40
Sierra Blanca            94  72  95  70 /  40  60  70  60
Las Cruces               96  74 101  73 /  50  30  20  20
Alamogordo               94  70  98  68 /  50  20  10  10
Cloudcroft               72  55  76  52 /  50  30  30  20
Truth or Consequences    94  71  99  71 /  20  10   0  10
Silver City              88  65  93  65 /  40  30  20  20
Deming                   94  70 100  70 /  30  40  10  20
Lordsburg                94  70  98  70 /  40  30  20  20
West El Paso Metro       96  78  98  78 /  40  30  30  40
Dell City                99  74  99  73 /  30  30  40  30
Fort Hancock            100  75 102  76 /  40  50  70  60
Loma Linda               90  71  93  70 /  40  40  50  40
Fabens                   98  77 102  76 /  30  40  40  40
Santa Teresa             93  75  98  73 /  40  30  30  40
White Sands HQ           94  78  97  76 /  50  30  30  30
Jornada Range            94  72  99  69 /  30  30  20  20
Hatch                    97  71 102  70 /  30  20  10  20
Columbus                 93  75  98  73 /  30  40  20  30
Orogrande                94  73  96  72 /  50  30  30  20
Mayhill                  83  61  87  58 /  50  30  30  20
Mescalero                83  60  87  57 /  50  20  20  20
Timberon                 82  60  85  58 /  60  30  40  20
Winston                  86  60  91  58 /  30  20  10  10
Hillsboro                91  69  96  69 /  50  30  20  20
Spaceport                94  67  99  66 /  30  20  10  10
Lake Roberts             88  61  93  59 /  40  30  20  10
Hurley                   91  65  96  65 /  40  30  20  10
Cliff                    97  64 103  65 /  40  30  20  10
Mule Creek               91  67  97  65 /  40  30  20  10
Faywood                  89  67  94  67 /  50  40  20  20
Animas                   93  70  97  68 /  40  40  40  30
Hachita                  91  70  96  68 /  40  40  30  30
Antelope Wells           90  70  95  68 /  60  50  50  40
Cloverdale               87  66  90  66 /  60  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers