Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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906 FXUS64 KEPZ 011135 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 535 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Active weather conditions will continue each day of this week and through the weekend. Strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding will be the main concerns from the thunderstorms that develop across our area. The temperatures will at and above the normal throughout the period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Currently, the skies are mostly cloudy with a few light spotty showers across the central CWA, the winds are light to breezy and temperatures are on the mild side. These light showers will gradually diminish as they move northward. For today, similar to yesterday, we will continue to be quiet mainly during the morning hours, but will active in the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms develop across the the mountains due to upslope flow at first and then over the lowlands along the outflow boundaries. The PWAT values will be near to above the climatological normal with the dew point temperatures in the 40s and 50s. As with past events, the main threat from theses storms will be heavy rainfall that will lead to flash flooding and strong gusty winds. Also, can`t rule out pea sized hail with some of these storms. The center of a ridge of high pressure will be across eastern Texas; thus, increased cloud coverage, rain-cooled air and a weak ridge aloft, the high temperatures this afternoon will be generally around the normal for this time of the year. For tonight, showers and thunderstorms may linger into the late evening hours. However, by around the early morning hours storms will dissipate leaving the rest of the morning quiet. There will be some cloud debris with light to breezy winds, which would allow for the low temperatures on Tuesday morning to be above the climatological average. By Tuesday, the center of the ridge looks to shift slightly eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will cause the moisture to be confined across our area while a shortwave trough passes to out north. On Tuesday, we will see a repeat of Monday`s weather. The temperatures will continue to be near the normal on Tuesday. By the middle of the week, the ridge axis will move further east across the Southeast. This will steer more moisture into our area. Also, as with the previous day, a shortwave trough will move to our north leaving us in the call area with another ridge across the Pacific Southwest. We will be sandwiched between the these three features allowing for areawide precipitation and with the risk of see more flood and wind events across the entire CWA on Wednesday. As we head toward the end of the week, active weather will persist; however, not as with the first half of the week. On Thursday, will be less active weather than what we will see on Tuesday and Wednesday. Much of the day on Friday should be quiet; however, there is a chance for that a back door cold front could move through overnight Friday into Saturday morning with an easterly wave move across Mexico. With these two features coupled together, Friday night could be active all night long. More on this as we get closer to this event. The temperatures toward the end of the week will warm to above the normal; but will decrease to below the normal on Saturday. High pressure will amplify across the West, a trough sags across the Central Plains; thus active weather will likely continue through the weekend for much of our area. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG FEW080-OVC250. The winds will be light and variable in direction through 04Z Tuesday before sustained out from the between the north and northeast while continuing to be light thereafter. The winds may become low end breezy 9 to 12 kts with gust up to 20 kts at KTCS between 20 and 06Z Tuesday. Also, there will be a few TS (not mentioned in the TAFs) across the Borderland after 18Z, which can cause the winds to become breezy across the rest of the terminals this afternoon as well. Other than some heavy showers across the terminals that can reduce the VSBY for a short period, generally there should be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and this evening across much of the zones. The main concerns for these storms will be heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding, gusty winds and frequent lightning. The 20ft winds will be light to breezy and temperatures near the average. Tonight recovery will be good to excellent. Showers and thunderstorms will linger through the late evening hours. For Tuesday, similar conditions are expected with quiet weather mainly in the morning and active in the afternoon. The winds will continue to be light to breezy and temperatures around the normal. Tuesday overnight recovery will be good to excellent. For the rest of the period, each day we will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms with Wednesday being the most active day. The winds will be light to breezy with the temperatures gradually increasing to above the normal through the end of the week. With that being said, there will be no fire weather concerns across the entire zones throughout the period. The min RHs today will be between 20 and 30% in the lowlands and between 35 and 50% in the mountains. The min RHs on Tuesday will decrease 3 to 5% across the zones. The ventilation rates will be poor to very good today then poor to good on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 100 81 102 81 / 10 20 20 50 Sierra Blanca 93 72 96 73 / 10 10 20 50 Las Cruces 97 74 100 75 / 20 30 30 40 Alamogordo 95 70 97 70 / 20 20 30 30 Cloudcroft 73 54 75 55 / 40 20 60 40 Truth or Consequences 94 73 93 73 / 40 40 70 40 Silver City 86 67 89 66 / 50 50 80 50 Deming 97 72 98 73 / 30 30 50 50 Lordsburg 93 70 95 70 / 50 40 60 50 West El Paso Metro 98 79 100 78 / 10 20 30 50 Dell City 97 73 101 75 / 10 10 20 30 Fort Hancock 100 76 103 76 / 10 10 20 50 Loma Linda 91 73 94 73 / 20 20 30 50 Fabens 99 77 102 78 / 20 20 20 50 Santa Teresa 96 74 99 75 / 20 30 30 60 White Sands HQ 96 77 97 78 / 20 30 40 50 Jornada Range 96 71 97 71 / 20 30 40 40 Hatch 97 72 99 72 / 20 30 50 50 Columbus 96 74 98 75 / 30 30 40 60 Orogrande 94 73 97 73 / 20 20 30 40 Mayhill 84 59 86 60 / 40 20 60 40 Mescalero 84 59 86 60 / 40 30 60 40 Timberon 81 57 84 59 / 30 20 50 40 Winston 84 61 83 60 / 70 40 90 40 Hillsboro 92 69 92 69 / 50 40 80 50 Spaceport 94 67 95 68 / 30 40 60 40 Lake Roberts 86 62 88 62 / 60 60 80 50 Hurley 90 66 92 66 / 40 40 60 40 Cliff 95 67 97 65 / 50 40 60 30 Mule Creek 89 68 91 68 / 60 40 60 30 Faywood 89 68 92 68 / 40 40 70 50 Animas 94 69 95 70 / 60 50 60 50 Hachita 94 69 95 69 / 40 40 50 60 Antelope Wells 93 69 94 69 / 50 40 70 70 Cloverdale 89 67 90 66 / 50 40 60 60 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flash Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for NMZ414>416. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira