Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
556 FXUS64 KEPZ 021112 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 512 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 202 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Daily storm chances this week, with the highest storm coverage Wednesday afternoon. Storm will be capable of strong outflow winds and localized flooding. Hot weather on Thursday before a backdoor cold front briefly cools us down. Drier weather expected next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 202 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 High pressure aloft over the lower Mississippi River valley with the polar jet moving across the central Rockies today. Plume of deepest moisture focused across southwest and central New Mexico today with PWs of 1.3-1.4" and surface dewpoints in the lower 60s. Thunderstorm coverage will be highest across Grant/Sierra Counties this afternoon, with more isolated activity elsewhere. Rain chances exist everywhere, but a lot of far west Texas may stay dry this evening with a greater influence under the upper ridge and lack of instability. Temperatures will be warmer in the Texas counties today due to the longer sunshine this afternoon. Forecasting El Paso to reach 104 degrees, with other areas in the upper 90s/100. Shortwave over the central Rockies will shift the moisture plume southward on Wednesday along with a slight eastward progression of the monsoonal high. This looks to be the best chance for rain area wide and the highest coverage in afternoon thunderstorms across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. Enhanced synoptic lifting at the base of this trough and PWs 1.3-1.5" will promote scattered to numerous thunderstorms Wednesday evening, some of which may produce strong outflow winds and localized flash flooding. Slightly cooler afternoon highs due to this early start to storm chances. Drier air moving in from the north on Thursday will begin limiting storm chances, influenced by the approach of the Pacific high pressure and continentally sourced northwest flow from the Four Corners area. Can`t entirely rule out rain chances Thursday, but coverage will be more limited to the International Border. As such, lowland high temperatures back to 100-105. Backdoor cold front restrengthens easterly flow on Friday and allow moisture to briefly flow back into the region. We`ll cool down a few degrees and continue rain chances if this boundary can indeed make it this far late in the week. Next weekend looks to lean drier as high pressure over the US Southwest dominated the pattern and shuts off our tap of subtropical moisture. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 VMC this morning with SCT-BKN130 remnants of yesterday`s convection. Skies expected to clear during the late morning hours, becoming SKC-FEW100. Prevailing surface winds out of the SW 210-270 AOB 08 knots, becoming gusty and outflow dominant with storm development later this evening. Highest storm coverage across SW and central NM, temporary impacts possible at KTCS/KDMN. Gusty outflow winds this evening with gusts up to 30 knots and SCT-BKN120CB. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 202 AM MDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday will keep fire danger low. New lightning starts expected to remain small under light northwest flow and higher soil moisture over forested areas. Min RH 25-40% with temperatures near normal. Drier weather beginning on Thursday as drier air moves in from the northwest. Does look like we`ll start seeing critically low RH (<15%) Thursday afternoon and again next weekend, but daytime winds are still expected to be light. Backdoor cold front forecasted for Friday, shifting winds to the east. Less storm coverage next weekend. Smoke ventilation Fair to Good next few days, becoming Very Good late this week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 104 82 100 81 / 20 50 50 40 Sierra Blanca 96 72 96 72 / 20 50 60 60 Las Cruces 100 75 97 74 / 30 40 50 20 Alamogordo 96 72 96 71 / 30 40 40 20 Cloudcroft 75 55 73 55 / 60 50 80 30 Truth or Consequences 93 72 91 71 / 70 40 40 10 Silver City 88 66 86 65 / 60 50 60 20 Deming 97 72 94 70 / 40 50 50 20 Lordsburg 94 71 93 69 / 50 40 50 20 West El Paso Metro 100 78 97 79 / 20 50 50 40 Dell City 101 75 99 74 / 20 30 50 30 Fort Hancock 103 77 101 77 / 20 50 60 60 Loma Linda 93 72 91 72 / 20 50 60 40 Fabens 102 78 100 77 / 20 50 60 40 Santa Teresa 98 75 96 75 / 20 50 60 40 White Sands HQ 97 78 96 79 / 30 40 60 30 Jornada Range 97 71 95 72 / 40 40 50 20 Hatch 98 72 96 72 / 40 40 50 20 Columbus 96 74 94 76 / 30 50 50 40 Orogrande 96 74 95 74 / 30 40 50 30 Mayhill 86 60 83 60 / 60 40 80 30 Mescalero 85 59 84 59 / 50 40 70 20 Timberon 84 59 83 59 / 50 40 70 30 Winston 83 60 84 59 / 80 50 60 10 Hillsboro 91 69 89 69 / 60 50 70 20 Spaceport 95 69 92 67 / 50 30 50 10 Lake Roberts 87 62 86 60 / 70 50 60 10 Hurley 91 66 89 65 / 50 50 50 10 Cliff 96 65 96 64 / 60 40 40 10 Mule Creek 90 67 90 67 / 60 30 30 10 Faywood 91 67 88 67 / 50 60 60 20 Animas 93 70 92 70 / 50 40 50 20 Hachita 93 70 91 71 / 50 50 50 20 Antelope Wells 93 68 90 70 / 50 60 70 50 Cloverdale 88 66 86 66 / 60 60 60 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt