Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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462 FXUS64 KEPZ 041120 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 520 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 344 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Happy 4th of July! Temperatures this afternoon and evening will be hot across the desert lowlands. A Heat Advisory has been issued most of the El Paso County and the Rio Grande Valley of Hudspeth County. An isolated storm or two is possible today, mainly focused across west Texas. A backdoor front will move through, increasing moisture and rain chances across the area on Saturday. Dry northwest flow dominates on Sunday with hot temperatures expected. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 High pressure aloft over the Deep South and Southern Mississippi River Valley, along with a strengthening upper level high off the coast of California will be the synoptic scale features driving the weather locally across the Desert SW through the weekend and into next week. That said, no significant changes from previous forecast packages. First and foremost, Happy 4th of July!!! For today, expected quiet and generally dry weather conditions across the forecast area. The strengthening high pressure aforementioned above will move onshore across western CONUS with it`s eastern periphery nosing into the Four Corners vicinity. North/northwesterly flow will increase as a result, pushing the deep Monsoonal moisture slowly towards the south and southeast. This dry influence along with increasing 500mb heights will decrease rain chances across the northern portions of the CWA with the focus for isolated storm or two across West Texas and along the International Border. There remains low-end chances of an isolated storm or two over the Gila and Sacs due to orographics. After a relatively "cool" and cloudy day on Wednesday, hot temperatures will be the main weather focus for the 4th of July. Increasing 500mb heights and 850mb temps between 31-34C, high temperatures this afternoon will top out between 100-105 across the desert lowlands. That said, a Heat Advisory will be in effect from noon today through midnight tonight for most of El Paso County and the Rio Grande Valley of Hudspeth County. Although NBM probs show 20- 40 percent chance of temps reaching 105, confidence is high that impacts will be felt across the El Paso metro due to it being a holiday with plenty of outdoor activities/festivities going on across the city, hence the Heat Advisory issuance. If you do have outdoor plans this afternoon and evening, please take extra precautions like: drink plenty of fluids, try to stay in the shade if outdoors, and reduce/limit strenuous activities outdoors. Areas across the desert lowlands that aren`t within the Heat Advisory, like Las Cruces, Deming, Alamogordo, etc. Please take the same precautions, even though there`s not a Heat Advisory for these locations, Moderate risk for heat-related impacts will be felt. For Friday, a backdoor frontal boundary will move east to west across the area. This will increase surface and low-level moisture across the area, along with the return of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures on Friday will respond to the boundary intrusion and cool a few degrees from today. daily afternoon and evening isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possible. Temperatures each afternoon will hover right around the 100 degree mark with light winds. By the weekend, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible on Saturday, mainly focusing for areas along and east of the Rio Grande Valley. On Sunday, the strong upper level high pressure over western CONUS will expand and nose in from the west. Conditions will dry out with temperatures increasing back above Heat Advisory thresholds for places like El Paso and Las Cruces. Heat headlines will likely be needed. By the start of next week, model inconsistencies with lower forecast confidence arise. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Skies cloudy this morning with SCT to BKN at 12-15 kft with BKN at 20 kft. Skies and CIGS will be remain SCT-BKN at 10-15 kft through the afternoon hours. Winds generally light and VRB through the morning, becoming W/NW during the afternoon at 5-10 knots. A backdoor frontal boundary will move through during the evening, between 00Z-03Z shifting winds to the east at 7-12 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 344 AM MDT Thu Jul 4 2024 Fire weather concerns are LOW to ELEVATED for Thursday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening, focusing across Far West Texas. Much drier air will infiltrate the forecast area with critically low (10-15%) Min RH values for most of the forecast area, excluding the Sacs and Hudspeth County. Min RH values will be greater than 25 percent areawide, 30-50 percent over the mountains. High temperatures this afternoon will run 5-8 degrees warmer than yesterday under deep afternoon mixing of 10-15 kft. 10-100hr fuels remain moist with ERC values at or below the 50th percentile. Winds will be light and mainly diurnal and terrain driven under weak west/northwest flow. On Friday, a backdoor frontal boundary will push east to west across the area during the Thursday night and early Friday morning hours. Winds will become breezy along and behind, generally out of the east at 10-20 mph. Moisture values will increase on Friday with Min RHs of >20% along and east of the Rio Grande Valley, areas along and west of the Continental Divide will still see critically low Min RH values. An increase in shower/storm activity will accompany the moisture on Friday, with the highest probabilities over the Sacramento Mtns and Far West TX. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain in the forecast for Saturday, with another dry air intrusion from the west on Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 105 80 99 76 / 20 30 50 30 Sierra Blanca 97 71 90 68 / 60 60 60 30 Las Cruces 103 73 99 72 / 10 20 30 30 Alamogordo 101 68 95 66 / 10 10 40 30 Cloudcroft 78 53 69 50 / 20 20 70 40 Truth or Consequences 100 71 96 70 / 0 0 20 30 Silver City 95 66 92 65 / 20 20 30 30 Deming 102 71 99 70 / 20 20 30 30 Lordsburg 100 69 99 69 / 20 20 20 30 West El Paso Metro 102 78 97 75 / 20 30 40 40 Dell City 102 73 94 69 / 30 30 50 30 Fort Hancock 104 76 97 73 / 50 60 60 30 Loma Linda 95 71 89 68 / 30 30 60 40 Fabens 105 78 98 75 / 40 40 50 30 Santa Teresa 100 73 95 72 / 20 20 40 40 White Sands HQ 101 76 95 73 / 20 20 50 40 Jornada Range 101 68 96 68 / 10 10 50 30 Hatch 104 69 99 69 / 10 10 30 30 Columbus 101 74 97 73 / 20 30 30 40 Orogrande 100 73 93 69 / 20 20 50 30 Mayhill 90 58 77 55 / 30 20 70 40 Mescalero 89 58 81 54 / 20 10 70 30 Timberon 86 57 79 54 / 30 20 70 30 Winston 92 58 88 57 / 10 10 30 30 Hillsboro 98 68 94 66 / 10 10 30 30 Spaceport 101 65 95 65 / 10 10 30 30 Lake Roberts 94 60 92 60 / 20 20 30 30 Hurley 98 65 95 63 / 20 20 30 30 Cliff 104 64 103 65 / 20 20 20 30 Mule Creek 98 67 97 66 / 20 20 20 30 Faywood 96 68 92 65 / 20 20 30 30 Animas 100 68 99 69 / 30 30 30 30 Hachita 99 68 98 68 / 20 30 20 40 Antelope Wells 98 68 98 68 / 40 40 40 50 Cloverdale 93 65 94 66 / 40 40 40 30 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to midnight MDT tonight for TXZ418- 419-423-424. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...38-Rogers