Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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077 FXUS64 KEPZ 052013 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 213 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Much of the next week will see near average temperatures and daily thunderstorm chances with locally heavy rain the main threat. The one day where it will be very hot and dry will be Sunday when high temperatures get well above 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 For the most part, a fairly persistent pattern across the region for the upcoming week. Upper high currently centered just off the Northern CA Coast will drift slowly southeast into the Great Basin by the end of the period with a series of disturbances in northwest flow aloft keeping a chance for showers and thunderstorms going almost daily except Sunday. Tonight we will see storms develop off the higher elevation, mainly along and east of the RGV then moving south. Main threat will be locally heavy rain with shear not very impressive. Some models showing hints of some after midnight activity, not overly convinced of this given PW`s still on the low side, but there is some instability aloft that could allow a couple isolated cells to develop. Generally the same setup for Sat, but instability and moisture push further west, so could get storms CWA-wide, but again lacking shear for much organized severe. Saturday will see highs similar to today with most areas remaining below 100. Sunday is the one day different than the others. Low level flow turns west to northwest and brings in much drier, more stable air resulting in a day with little to no storm coverage and hot temperatures. Looks like most lowland areas will be above 100 degrees with up to 108 possible. Have issued a Heat Advisory for Sunday. Moisture starts pushing back in Monday, how far is still uncertain. GFS continues to show strong push during the day through much of the CWA while the EC and NAM have a weaker push only to the Rio Grande. Ensemble means for each respective model support their operational. This is one time where the NAM typically has a better handle on low level features, and since it`s more in line with the EC, will use that for this forecast. This means moisture mainly east with temperatures still up near 100 for areas along and west of the Rio Grande and gradually cooling down to the east. Highs will be cooler than Sunday, so do not think Heat Advisory will need to be extended. Tue-Fri are all fairly similar with N to NE flow over the region. Not really any mid/high level moisture present, but low level east to southeast flow will keep dew points in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Not a true monsoonal pattern since even with the low level E/SE winds, trajectories aren`t from the Gulf thanks in part to Beryl. Daily thunderstorm chances expected though. Main threat will be heavy rain, even though PW`s never get much above 1.1-1.2", wind profile supports training/back building storms. Temperatures will be near average with mainly mid to upper 90s expected. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 2122 AM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 P6SM FEW-SCT080-120 SCT-BKN200-250 for much of the afternoon and early evening with scattered1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 along and south of a KSRR-KLRU line with isolated storms further west. Expect storms to push south and end by 03Z with skies becoming SKC- SCT120 with an isolated thunderstorm possible again after 09Z north of I-10 in NM. Winds generally east to southeast 5-15KTS, some gusts up to 30KTS possible on western mountain slopes overnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Jul 5 2024 Much of the next week will see daily shower and thunderstorm chances as decent low level moisture will be around. The main threat will be locally heavy rain with concerns for recent burn scars. The one exception will be Sunday when a quick turn of winds to the west bring high temperatures above 100 for the lowlands with RH`s into the single digits and teens. Winds Sunday will also be 10-20 mph at times creating near critical fire conditions. Other days will see RH`s in the mid teens to mid 20s with lowest RH`s being in the lowlands west of the Divide. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 75 99 78 107 / 20 50 40 10 Sierra Blanca 67 91 69 100 / 40 40 40 10 Las Cruces 72 98 72 104 / 20 50 40 10 Alamogordo 65 94 69 102 / 20 40 20 10 Cloudcroft 49 71 54 78 / 30 70 30 10 Truth or Consequences 70 97 68 104 / 20 50 30 10 Silver City 66 89 67 96 / 10 40 20 10 Deming 70 98 67 104 / 20 40 30 10 Lordsburg 70 97 68 102 / 10 30 20 10 West El Paso Metro 74 97 77 212 / 30 50 40 10 Dell City 69 94 69 104 / 20 30 20 10 Fort Hancock 72 99 73 106 / 30 50 40 10 Loma Linda 66 89 69 95 / 20 50 40 10 Fabens 70 99 75 106 / 20 50 40 10 Santa Teresa 71 95 72 104 / 20 50 40 10 White Sands HQ 72 95 75 104 / 20 50 40 10 Jornada Range 66 97 64 103 / 20 50 40 10 Hatch 67 97 67 104 / 10 50 30 10 Columbus 72 99 72 103 / 20 40 40 10 Orogrande 68 94 70 99 / 20 50 30 10 Mayhill 54 81 61 90 / 30 70 30 20 Mescalero 53 82 60 88 / 30 60 20 10 Timberon 52 80 56 86 / 20 70 30 20 Winston 57 89 57 94 / 20 50 20 10 Hillsboro 65 94 64 102 / 10 60 30 10 Spaceport 65 97 63 103 / 20 50 30 10 Lake Roberts 55 90 58 96 / 10 40 20 10 Hurley 64 93 63 98 / 10 40 20 10 Cliff 60 98 63 101 / 10 40 20 10 Mule Creek 59 94 61 98 / 10 40 20 10 Faywood 65 92 63 98 / 10 50 30 10 Animas 69 98 68 103 / 10 30 30 20 Hachita 67 96 66 102 / 10 30 30 10 Antelope Wells 68 96 67 102 / 20 30 30 20 Cloverdale 66 92 64 95 / 10 40 40 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for TXZ418>424. NM...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ407- 409>411-417-427>429. Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz