778
AXPZ20 KNHC 042046
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jul 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Aletta is centered near 17.9N 107.0W at 04/2100
UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 16N
to 20N between 106W and 108W. Seas are peaking to 11 ft with
this system. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the
next day or two. Aletta is forecast to become a remnant low by
Friday night and dissipate this weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Aletta NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 13N96W, then resumes near 12N109W to 09N132W. The ITCZ
continues from 09N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 114W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Aletta.

Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area. This is
allowing for light to gentle winds to prevail over the offshore
waters as confirmed by latest scatterometer data. Seas across
the Baja California offshore waters range from 5 to 7 ft within
mostly NW swell with southerly swell noted south of Cabo San
Lucas. Across the SW and southern Mexico offshore waters, 6 to 8
ft seas are noted with 8 ft seas near the now upgraded T.S.
Aletta, within mostly S swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle
to moderate southerly winds are present along with seas of 3 to
5 ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Jalisco and Michoacan related to Aletta.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Aletta will weaken to a
tropical depression near 18.3N 108.1W Fri morning, move to 18.2N
109.6W Fri afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 17.8N
111.1W Sat morning, 17.3N 112.8W Sat afternoon, and dissipate Sun
morning. Otherwise, the gradient between a surface trough along
the Baja California Peninsula and high pressure west of the area
will continue to support moderate to fresh southeast winds along
the Gulf of California through the weekend. Fresh to strong north
gap winds and rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
region tonight through Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present over the
offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Meanwhile,
mostly gentle to moderate southwest winds are over the remainder
of the offshore waters. Seas across the waters N of 08N are 5 to
6 ft range due to long-period south swell. S of 08N, seas are 5
to 8 ft within SW swell across the rest of the Central America
and Colombia offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in SW swell
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters.

Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Gulf of Panama and
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue across
the Central America offshore waters through Fri night, with
moderate to rough seas with these winds. Winds are also expected
to become moderate to fresh over the Galapagos Islands offshore
waters Fri through Sat night, along with moderate to rough seas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over most of
the forecast waters through the next few days. Gusty winds and
locally rough seas may accompany some of the activity.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from a 1018 mb high
centered near 29N123W. The ridge covers the waters north of 20N
and west of 120W. The latest scatterometer data depicts mostly
light to gentle winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough.
Locally moderate winds are noted N of 25N and W of 130W. An area
of seas 8 to 9 ft within N to NE swell is noted N of 28N between
127W and 139W. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft in the area.
Meanwhile, south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds are noted. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
within S swell.

For the forecast, expect for the moderate to fresh east to
southeast winds south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 115W
through Fri, then expand beyond 115W through the weekend. Seas
of 6 to 8 ft with these winds are forecast to subside slightly
later Sat into Sun to 5 to 7 ft in long-period south swell.
Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds west of the Baja
California Norte offshore waters will develop Fri night and move
west through the weekend. These winds will be accompanied by
moderate seas. The 8-9 ft swell N of 26N will propagate westward
through Fri night where seas will subside below 8 ft.

$$
ERA