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Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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770 AXPZ20 KNHC 300857 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico (AL94): A broad area of low pressure is over the Bay of Campeche with disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for further development, and a short- lived tropical depression could form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Mon. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early next week. Currently, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Chiapas, and over most of Guatemala. This system Please refer to local weather advisories for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia, northwestward across southern Panama to northern Costa Rica and continues northwestward to 14N95W, then southwestward to low pressure near 12N105W 1010 mb, and to 08N111W. The ITCZ extends from 08N111W to 08N116W to 06N124W to 06N130W to 07N135W to 07N140W. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 95W and 98W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of 16N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is south of the trough within 60 nm of 12N96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall potential through the early part of the upcoming week over southern Mexico. A weak pressure gradient across the area offshore waters is supporting light to gentle northwest winds over most of the Mexico offshore waters. Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Seas across the SW Mexican offshore zones range 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Locally moderate northwest winds are N of Punta Eugenia, and off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds continue in the northern Gulf of California through Mon along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure that is over the Bay of Campeche extend westward to the offshore waters of southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. For the forecast, the scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to change little through the early part of the upcoming week. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja California offshore waters. A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula and a tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon through Wed. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form by early next week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form around midweek while the system moves west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for information on heavy rainfall potential through the early part of the upcoming week over northern Central America. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Central America offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft with south to southwest swell. Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia with 3 to 4 ft seas. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south swell. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure that is over the Bay of Campeche extend westward to the offshore waters of Guatemala. Gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough are forecast to become moderate to fresh southwest to west winds south of Costa Rica and Panama starting late Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging extends southeastward from high pressure of 1027 mb that is located well north of the area near 34N136W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 122W. North of the ITCZ to 31N and west of 130W, moderate to fresh northeast winds are present except for gentle northeast winds in the far NW part. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon trough, except for light and variable winds from 08N to 18N between 111W and 121W and for moderate northeast winds within 60 nm NW of a 1010 mb low that is near 12N105W. A trough extends northwestward from the low to near 15N112W. Scattered moderate convection is between the trough and the monsoon trough. Moderate east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W south of the monsoon through early on Mon. Little change is expected elsewhere through the middle of next week. $$ Aguirre