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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
053 FXUS66 KEKA 081325 CCA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 544 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Very hot and dry weather will continue in the interior all week. A shallow marine layer will result in cooling and periods of fog for coastal areas today through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Extreme to major heat risk is forecast to continue across most of Trinity, eastern/southeastern Mendocino, northeast/eastern Humboldt, eastern Del Norte and northern Lake counties today. Otherwise, heat risk is forecast to remain low to moderate. Upper level ridging will continue to weaken and shift eastward today through Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Interior temperatures will trend down on Tuesday, but it will remain hot for much of the interior with 850mb temperatures well above normal; 25 to 30C. Excessive heat warnings and heat advisories remain in effect for today. Another record high temperature at Ukiah Municipal Airport is not forecast today. The record for Ukiah today is 110F and we are forecasting 106F. Also, with a shallow marine layer, expect considerably cooler coastal temperatures with fog potentially hugging the coastline through the day. Upper ridging and offshore flow will return on Wed and interior temperatures will once again be on an upward trend through Thu. Extreme to major heat risk will once expand and another warning or advisory may be necessary, especially for Trinity, Lake and interior Mendocino. Depending the strength of the offshore flow Wed and Thu, coastal areas may also warm back up. Confidence is not high with the NBM forecast for coastal areas. The heat will last into Friday and Saturday before abating on Sunday. The relief is not forecast to be very dramatic with highs in the mid 90`s to around 100F forecast on Sunday. A trough or semi-closed low will approach over the weekend. National Blend of Models (NBM) indicates interior temperatures remaining above normal Sat and Sun; generally in the 90`s except 100-105F in Trinity and NE Humboldt. The trough should induce a deeper marine layer as well as stronger diurnally driven winds in the interior. NBM mean indicates gusts from 15-20 mph with 90th percentile gusts up to 30 mph. And minimum RH`s will probably remain critically low; 10-20%. Potential for thunderstorms during the weekend remains very low with ensemble mean PWATS below normal across NW California forecast area. NBM 12 hour probabilities are also quite low (no more than 9%) across the mountains of NE Trinity Sat and Sun. This will need to monitored. Main impact from this trough over the weekend appears to be "cooling" and gustier diurnally driven winds in the interior. DB && .AVIATION...A narrow band of stratus along the coast is bringing flight categories to LIFT/IFR this morning as conditions favor fog development but mostly it is advecting marine stratus that will keep KCEC and KACV socked in at the coast until after sunrise. Light to calm winds along with a near shore wind reversal, has further enhanced the low cloud and fog development at KACV and more recently at KCEC. Low level moisture appears to be persistent in the model soundings with a bit of relief this afternoon but returning this evening and deepening overnight into Tuesday. KUKI has a much drier profile and will have prevailing VFR conditions. Northerlies will build in the afternoon at KUKI. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerly winds and waves expected to continue with SC.Y conditions in the outer waters downwind of Port Orford and Cape Mendocino, stronger gusts 25-30 knots possible within the inner waters in the lee of the Cape. Square 6-7 foot wave response expected through Tuesday in the southern outer zone PZZ475 with conditions in the northern outer zone PZZ470, diminishing this morning. Expect Gale force conditions to develop Wednesday for both northern and southern outer waters as gusts build to 40 knots and steep square waves developing in response to wind and wave action. /EYS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ102-104- 106-112. Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ105-107-108-110-111-113>115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT Tuesday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png