377
FXUS63 KEAX 010631
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
131 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Potential for severe storms Tuesday night as cold front builds
  southward into the region. Straight line winds is the main
  threat.

- Hot and humid conditions expected on Tuesday.  Some spots could
approach heat advisory levels, especially south and west of the KC
metro.

- Additional rounds of storms are expected the second half of
  the week, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
  threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Surface high pressure centered over the western Great Lakes has
lead to cooler and direr air across the region today. This
system is expected to shift east, and winds locally will turn
clockwise with time. Shortwave across central KS is expected to
migrate east into eastern Kansas toward central Missouri this
evening. As it pushes east, it expected to work into a less
favorable environment, but could see increased cloud cover and
perhaps a high based shower. Dry air in the sub- cloud layer
will make it difficult for precipitation to reach the surface,
but potential is there to see a few sprinkles across eastern
Kansas.

Tonight, strong low level theta-e advection is expected to develop
across the Central Plains. The increasing moisture will lead to
precipitable water values quickly returning above 2" across
central into eastern KS. Shower and thunderstorm development is
expected across central KS. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to build east southeast while low level theta-e
advection lifts to the northeast. This is expected to lead to an
elongated area of non-severe shower and thunderstorms Monday
morning across eastern Kansas into western Missouri, which
should weaken with time as it migrates away from the forcing and
instability. The extensive cloud cover Monday morning is
expected to gradually clear from west to east leading to warming
conditions across eastern Kansas into central Missouri.

More substantial warming is expected on Tuesday as 30-50 knot low
level jet develops Monday night into Tuesday across the Central
Plains. This will lead to warm, but breezy conditions on Tuesday.
Potential cloud cover across northern Missouri may temper warming
some, while skies farther south appear to be mostly clear leading to
warm and muggy conditions.  NBM probabilities suggest high
temperatures exceeding 95 degrees F mainly within the KC metro and
areas south and west, potential leading to head advisory conditions
in these locations.

Cold front associated with a low pressure system moving from central
Canada towards the Hudson Bay may approach the region Tuesday night,
sagging slowly southward through the midweek.  This feature could be
the focus for thunderstorm development as a series of shortwaves
move east under a speedy upper level jet across the northern tier of
the lower 48.  The strongest of these waves appears to build into
Northern Plains on Thursday, potentially leading to an active 4th of
July.  Right now, there are north/south differences in the
trajectory of this wave amongst the various solutions, making
prediction of storm location uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 119 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions expected to last until around 14Z for the
terminals. Showers over eastern Kansas are expected to move over
the area causing MVFR conditions. MVFR ceilings are expected to
last through the afternoon. Winds will shift to the southeast
and occasionally gust up to 25 mph through the day. VFR
conditions are expected to return late Monday evening.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Collier