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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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096 FXUS63 KEAX 061110 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 610 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storm chances increase this evening and tonight. A few strong storms are possible but the threat of severe weather is low. - Precipitation chances may continue into Sunday, with better chances Sunday night into Monday. - Near to slightly below normal temperatures through the middle of next week with a trend to above normal late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 316 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Broad upper troughing prevails across the middle of the country with upper-level ridging over the eastern Pacific and a closed low in the western Atlantic within broad ridging. This has set up northwesterly flow across the central and northern Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. Water vapor imagery shows a series shortwave troughs embedded within this flow early this morning. The first is moving into western South Dakota as of 08Z with an area of thunderstorms associated with the forcing from that wave. The second shortwave is farther northwest, in southern British Columbia and Alberta. As easternmost shortwave moves southeastward through the day, there will be modest moisture advection northward into eastern KS and NW MO. This moisture return will help increase instability but the combination of CAPE and shear still doesn`t look that impressive. The main limiting factor will be instability with nearly a 100% chance of over 1000 J/kg but likely not exceeding 1500 J/kg. This just isn`t much available potential energy for July. But it`s enough that given the shear in excess of 30kts, may support a few strong storms during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Instability quickly diminishes into the overnight, limiting the potential for strong to severe storms The second shortwave seems to phase with the broader upper trough and that trough deepens over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. With the trough deepening in the region the pattern has potential to be unsettled. But there is more uncertainty through this period as models are not in good agreement with the thermodynamic profiles and boundary location(s). Ensemble guidance shows 40-50% probabilities for at least 0.01" of rain. Probabilities decrease quickly with higher rain amounts. All this indicates that while we have 40-50% PoPs in the forecast for Sunday afternoon, it may not be a washout and, in fact, could be dry for most/ all of the afternoon time frame. Precipitation chances shift east throughout the forecast area Sunday night as the upper trough slowly shifts east. Again, there is a fair amount of uncertainty with a 50-60% chance for at least 0.01" with probabilities falling quickly as amounts increase over 0.25". However, there are small probabilities (5% or less) of rain amounts in excess of 1.5" Sunday night into in eastern KS and western MO. So while it`s likely there will be some precipitation during this time frame, there is a very small chance for heavy rain. The pattern is just too nebulous at this point to have much confidence in this. Temperatures look to be near normal through the middle of next week. The upper pattern will remain fairly steady through next Wednesday and Thursday. LREF clusters show little variation with the upper ridge dominating the western US and broad troughing over the central US to the Great Lakes region. By the end of next week, that troughing starts to weaken/ shift further east and that allows the ridge to start expanding eastward into the middle of the country. So by next Friday and Saturday, temperatures climbing into the 90s looks more likely. Isolated convection can`t be ruled out in this pattern but at the moment there is not a strong enough signal to mention anything more than diurnally driven slight chance PoPs. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Light southwesterly winds will become light southerly to southeasterly this afternoon and overnight. Skies will be clear initially with some diurnal CU developing this afternoon. Cloud bases will be near 5000 ft. This evening, CU dissipate with loss of daytime heating but will be replaced with thickening high-level clouds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB