Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
797 ACUS03 KWNS 020746 SWODY3 SPC AC 020745 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 AM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Independence Day, mainly across the Lower Missouri Valley, Ozarks, and south-central Plains. ...South-Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley to Upper Midwest... A seasonally strong mid/upper-level trough will cross the Upper Midwest on Thursday/Independence Day, with preceding height falls and a related strong belt of westerlies extending from the south-central Plains, eastward to the Ozarks, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic States. Likely influenced by early day precipitation/outflows and lingering cloud cover, it appears the strongest destabilization into Thursday afternoon will be across Missouri and far eastern/southern Kansas into northeast Oklahoma near a southeastward-moving front. Relatively strong westerlies aloft will support organized storm modes, potentially including some supercells, with storms otherwise likely to grow upscale and organize east-southeastward across the Ozarks during the evening. Farther north, although uncertainties exist related to early day precipitation and later-day destabilization, at least isolated severe thunderstorms may occur along the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, as it extends from northern Missouri northward into Iowa, southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin near a surface low. ..Guyer.. 07/02/2024 $$