466
ACUS03 KWNS 070729
SWODY3
SPC AC 070728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a couple of damaging
gusts or tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio
Valley on Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will traverse the OH Valley as a mid-level
anticyclone continues to build over the Interior West on Tuesday.
Given available moisture and instability, thunderstorms are expected
across the MS Valley to the East Coast, as well as the Intermountain
west (due to orographic lift). The best chance for any strong to
severe thunderstorms will be in association with the remnants of
Beryl, which are poised to track northeastward toward the Mid-South
into the OH Valley in tandem with the mid-level trough. A couple of
strong storms are also possible over New England. However, given
neutral heights and potentially limited buoyancy, confidence is too
low for introducing severe probabilities at this time.

...Mid-South into the Ohio Valley...
The remnants of Beryl should track northeastward as a strengthening
and deepening surface cyclone while coupling with the mid-level
trough on Tuesday. Guidance consensus depicts rich low-level
moisture advecting ahead of the surface low to foster at least
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon peak heating. Southeasterly
low-level flow will quickly veer and strengthen with height to
support enlarged, curved hodographs ahead of the surface low. As
such, at least a few damaging gusts and/or tornadoes are possible
with the stronger, more sustained storms that can develop. It is
possible that greater severe probabilities may be needed in later
outlooks to address the severe threat. However, too many
discrepancies exist between deterministic medium-range guidance
members in terms of the placement and timing of the surface low and
associated buoyancy/shear parameter spaces to delineate higher
severe probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024

$$