903
ACUS02 KWNS 070556
SWODY2
SPC AC 070554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
At least an isolated risk for tornadoes will be possible across
parts of eastern Texas into western Louisiana and southwestern
Arkansas tomorrow (Monday). A couple of severe gusts or instances of
hail may also occur in southwestern Texas.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough and attendant weak surface low will meander
eastward across the MS Valley as a diffuse surface cold front sags
southward across the southern High Plains tomorrow (Monday).
Meanwhile, an upper ridge and associated surface high will persist
across the Interior West. At the start of the period (12Z Monday),
Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the TX coastline as a
hurricane before weakening as it continues to move further inland.
Toward the end of the period (12Z Tuesday), the remnants of Beryl
are poised to track northeast toward the Mid-MS Valley while merging
with the mid-level trough. At least isolated thunderstorms are
possible across most of the CONUS along and to the east of the
Rockies (east of the upper-level ridge/surface high), where adequate
moisture and buoyancy are present. The best chance for any strong to
severe thunderstorms will be associated with Beryl across eastern
TX/western LA, where a few tornadoes will be possible. Otherwise,
isolated strong to severe storms could occur near the cold front
across southwestern TX.

...Eastern TX into Western LA and southwestern AR...
At the start of the period, Beryl should make landfall as an annular
hurricane, with rich low-level moisture (i.e. mid to upper 70s F
surface dewpoints) advecting inland from the Galveston Bay area,
into the right-front quadrant of the cyclone. Through the day, Beryl
will weaken to tropical storm status and transition to an asymmetric
cyclone as it shifts northeast and begins to merge with the
mid-level trough. Through this period, guidance consensus depicts
considerable strengthening and veering of the low-level vertical
wind profile, resulting in large, curved hodographs (200-300 m2/s2
effective SRH) within the northeast quadrant, coinciding with over
1000 J/kg SBCAPE. Multiple CAM members also show semi-discrete
storms within the northeast quadrant. At least a few tornadoes are
possible as the northeast quadrant of Beryl tracks northeast across
eastern TX into western LA and southwestern AR. Other thunderstorms
may develop along the northern/easternmost periphery of Beryl, where
vertical wind shear will be weaker. A damaging gust or a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out with these storms across northeast AR
into southeast MO.

...Southwestern TX...
By afternoon peak heating, thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and immediately south of the cold front across the Trans Pecos
region of southwestern TX. These storms will develop atop a deep,
mixed boundary layer amid elongated hodographs. Multicells are
expected as the main storm mode. 0-3 km lapse rates exceeding 9 C/km
coinciding with 30-40 kts of effective bulk shear will support an
isolated severe gust/hail threat with the stronger storms before
diminishing after sunset.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024

$$