103
ACUS02 KWNS 081714
SWODY2
SPC AC 081712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or
tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley
tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are
also possible over portions of New England.

...Synopsis...
Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early
Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the
southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity.
Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated
throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the
eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH
Valleys.

Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough
glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther
west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern
CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging
will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the
western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early
Wednesday morning.

...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley...
Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely
begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking
northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near
the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN
by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will
bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just
ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest
buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover.

Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead
of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where
convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical
within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will
likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular
storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist
throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to
relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the
hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis
within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the
warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing
the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado
threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e.
southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before
shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the
Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z.

...Portions of New England...
Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to
low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will
result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures
aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave
trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered
thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to
50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow,
contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40
kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support
multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures,
with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some
hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME.

..Mosier.. 07/08/2024

$$