Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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621 ACUS01 KWNS 030050 SWODY1 SPC AC 030049 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 PM CDT Tue Jul 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE MID-MS/LOWER MO VALLEYS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the Mid-Mississippi/Lower Missouri Valleys into the south-central High Plains through early tonight. ...01Z Update... A QLCS is ongoing from southern WI through northern MO, with broken convection into east-central KS. The northern portion of this QLCS should weaken in the next couple hours as it spreads farther northeast away from the surface-based instability plume centered on northern MO. The trailing part should be maintained into the Lower MO Valley vicinity through late evening, where the threat for scattered damaging winds should persist. Across the south-central High Plains, convection over southeast CO has thus far struggled to be sustained, while a few cells have increased over far northeast NM near the Raton Mesa. A strengthening low-level jet over west TX should aid in sustaining additional storm development north of the surface front that arcs across northwest OK into the central TX Panhandle and northeast NM. A plume of increasing buoyancy from west to east exists in the post-frontal air mass, characterized by around 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in the 00Z DDC sounding. In conjunction with the southern periphery of modest mid-level westerlies, a mix of severe wind/hail will be possible. These threats should persist through the rest of the evening before convection slowly subsides overnight amid increasing MLCIN. ..Grams.. 07/03/2024 $$