Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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050 ACUS01 KWNS 060559 SWODY1 SPC AC 060558 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected today from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. The greatest severe threat will likely be in the central Plains, where hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. ...Great Plains/Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough within a belt of stronger mid-level flow, will move eastward across the central Plains today. At the surface, an associated low will move from southwestern Nebraska into northern Kansas, as a cold front to the west advances across the central Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of moderate instability will likely be in place from western Kansas northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska. Convection is first expected to develop to the north of the surface low in north-central Nebraska, with cell coverage gradually expanding southwestward into western Kansas. Several clusters of storms are expected to persist into the early to mid evening along the instability corridor from west-central Kansas into central eastern Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km should be favorable for supercells with large hail. The greatest potential for supercells is expected from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska, where forecast soundings have the most favorable thermodynamic environment. Within this area, the strongest of cells could produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The hail threat should be greatest during the late afternoon as instability maximizes across the central Plains. The potential for hail and severe wind gusts will likely continue into the early to mid evening, as a large cluster of storms develops and moves east-southeastward across the central Plains. Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of the southern High Plains. Weaker large-scale ascent in the southern High Plains should keep cells more widely spaced, limiting severe threat coverage. ..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/06/2024 $$