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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
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906 FXUS63 KDVN 071906 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Active/unsettled through early week with periodic showers and storms. - Depending on the track, the remnants of tropical cyclone Beryl could bring rain to far south/east portions of the service area Tuesday night into Wednesday. - Temperatures generally near normal through much of next week, followed by potential heat and humidity towards the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A broad upper low remains positioned over northern Minnesota this afternoon, with a trof extending south through the Plains. Our area remains in a very moist air mass, with weakly forced showers and storms moving east/northeast at times. The morning activity has slowly waned today, with a band of rain still falling from around Fairfield to Tipton as of 1 PM. Under this rain/clouds, temperatures have been held much lower today, in the upper 60s to lower 70s, while outside of this cloud cover, we`ve warmed up strongly today into the mid to upper 80s, setting up a convectively active boundary from northeast to northern Illinois this afternoon. This boundary has access to estimated 1500 CAPE and and 25-30 kts of 0-6km shear. This is sufficient for updraft tilt and some spotty severe weather, primarily from wind gusts and quarter size hail this afternoon. This activity should exit the CWA by late afternoon, leaving the next round of forcing to spread activity over the CWA tonight. The next short wave is rounding the base of the upper trof today, and will move northeast over Iowa and Illinois tonight. While models are highly varied on location of any QPF with this feature, it does look like an uptick in coverage of showers and storms will occur tonight, with some training of storms as well. This repetitive movement, will combine with PWAT values estimated around 1.70", to bring isolated heavy rain totals over 1 inch again. These rain amounts may influence river forecasts, as was see today on the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids slight increase in crest following the 1+" rain upstream of it last night. Pops tonight are in the 50 to 75% range, given the increase in evening and overnight storms with the short wave. With clouds and dew points a step up from last night, lows in the mid to upper 60s are expected tonight. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 202 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 We continue with an unsettled/active early week period, as the positively-tilted mid/upper level trough progresses eastward toward the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. Through Tuesday (mainly east) a series of shortwaves will continue to traverse the region along the SW to NE oriented flow aloft. These disturbances coupled with a SW LLJ and forcing along a slow moving cold front will foster periodic showers and storms, especially near and east of the Mississippi River. Locally heavy rains are possible with any repeated or slow moving activity, while the organized severe weather threat appears low. Farther out/Beryl`s potential brush by our area... The progression of the broad mid/upper level trough will play a pivotal role in determining whether or not we see any rain and potentially gusty winds from the remnants of TC Beryl Tuesday night into Wednesday. The latest forecast from NHC and super ensemble mean track would take the remnant low from south of St Louis to northwest Ohio Wednesday into Thursday. The surface low tracks from the operational GFS, GEFS mean, and several members of ECMWF ensemble however, show a track further north/west, and closer to the western edge of the NHC forecast cone into northwest Illinois (not something we`re used to seeing!). To try and account for some potential of a more north/west track we`ve collaborated with eastern neighboring offices blending in some CONSAll guidance with NBM to give PoPs a bit of an increase across far SE portions of the service area Tuesday night into Wednesday, although staying in the chance (30-40%) category for now. We`ll continue to monitor the track of Beryl closely in the next 48+ hours, so stay tuned for updates. Heading into late next week and next weekend, the ensemble guidance supports ridging across the Intermountain West and Mid-Atlantic with weak troughing from the western Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi Valley. This will keep some chances for precipitation, although nothing too widespread/organized and perhaps more isolated diurnally driven. Temperatures should remain near normal into late next week, but by next weekend and just beyond there are some signs that the western ridge /heat dome/ may try to build toward the region leading to greater summer heat potential. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions will largely dominate, but there will be scattered shra/tsra throughout the TAF period accompanied by MVFR to IFR conditions (mainly for visibility). Outside of outflow near storms winds will generally be light from a southerly direction. The main period where showers and storms appear possible is during the late evening and overnight hours, after which, a period of MVFR cigs is more likely (50-70%). && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 The Mississippi River is currently cresting at and upstream of Camanche, IA. The crest may take 1 to as much as 3 days to pass. From Le Claire to Burlington, the respective crests will commence within the next 1 to 2 days. Keokuk is now forecast to crest within Moderate Flood category beginning Friday. The crest at Gregory Landing is forecast late Friday into Saturday. Tributary Rivers: Heavier rainfall overnight of near an inch upstream of Cedar Rapids has resulted in a slightly higher forecast for the Cedar River at Cedar Rapids. The Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for minor flooding with a forecast crest near 12.2 feet Monday evening. On the Wapsipinicon River at Dewitt, it is near crest around 11.8 feet. It is forecast to remain in moderate flooding category through late on Friday. On the Cedar River at Conesville, minor flooding will continue. It will see a secondary crest near 14.6 feet Wednesday night into Thursday. The Iowa River at Oakville is seeing high water levels due to backwater affects from the Mississippi River. It is forecast to remain near 11.7 or 11.8 feet through midweek and then rise to near 12.1 feet late Thursday into Friday. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...McClure/Ervin AVIATION...Ervin HYDROLOGY...14