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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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896 FXUS63 KDLH 071737 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 1237 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms ongoing this afternoon are expected through this evening. - A few stronger storms may form in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon and early this evening. - Monday and Tuesday feature continued daytime storm chances before a downturn in activity is expected Wednesday and Thursday. - Gradual warming trend through the week. Above normal temps possible Friday and Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 447 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A closed upper low embedded within a broader upper-level trough was centered over west-central Minnesota early this morning. As of 4 AM a broken arc of showers and thunderstorms stretched from southeast North Dakota into northwest Minnesota then curving toward the southeast across portions of central and east-central Minnesota into western Wisconsin and eastern Iowa. The upper low is forecast to propagate northeastward into the Arrowhead by this evening. Showers and storms will persist to the north and east of the low center along the axis of a thermal trough. Mostly clear skies were found over southwest Minnesota. Shower and storm coverage is expected to increase later this morning as the thermal trough rotates farther north into northern Minnesota to Upper Michigan. In the wake of this initial band of precip, expect partial clearing over the I-35 corridor and across northwest Wisconsin. High temperatures this afternoon will climb into the middle and upper 70s in those areas. The combination of several hours of heating and the morning precipitation will provide modest instability with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. CAMs demonstrate a line of storms developing along a nascent cold front from Lake County down to near Spooner. The storms will push east- northeastward along and ahead of the boundary through this evening. Deep layer shear will increase to 30 to 35 knots ahead of the front which will raise the potential for a few strong to severe storms. Mid- level lapse rate of 6 to 6.5 degC/km are forecast, so there will be a small risk of hail up to 1 inch in diameter. Hodographs feature a little low-level curvature and LCLs will be around 3kft AGL. Given these parameters, the potential for a tornado will be low, but not zero over northwest Wisconsin. The upper trough pivot through the Upper Midwest Monday as the upper low drifts into northeast Ontario. Cool air aloft will support another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A shortwave trough will propagate southeastward through the western periphery of the main trough for Tuesday, which will support another round of diurnal showers and storms. Ridging aloft will build for Wednesday and Thursday which will limit our shower and storm chances as the remnants of TS Beryl move northeastward through the Ohio Valley and into the central Great Lakes. With the building ridge, expect temperatures to trend gradually warmer through the week. A few spots will have a shot at 90 degrees Friday through next weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Low pressure moving into northwest Minnesota this afternoon is creating a band of rainfall near INL and increasing scattered thunderstorm coverage in northwest Wisconsin. A few strong thunderstorms may impact east of a line from OLG to RZN, including HYR, through 01Z this evening. Scattered rain showers persist through 06Z overnight tonight. Overnight fog and mist are expected at some terminals, creating very likely MVFR conditions, possible IFR and a low chance of localized LIFR. Another period of daytime thunderstorms and showers form again after 16Z Monday. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 447 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Winds will generally be in the 5 to 12 knot range over the next several days. A relaxed pressure gradient over the region should provide offshore flow during the overnights. Weak low pressure passing through the region today and tonight will turn winds northeasterly and then backing southwest for Monday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms today and tonight, and again during the afternoon and evening hours of Monday and Tuesday. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...NLy MARINE...Huyck