Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
892 FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jul 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3751 (S08E14, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced a M2.2 flare at 18/1014 UTC and an M2.0 flare at 18/1027 UTC. This region was also responsible for C-class flare activity as it underwent evolution, gaining maturing spots and small delta signatures in its intermediate area. Region 3759 (S06W10, Dao/beta) exhibited moderate growth. Region 3760 (N20W05, Cro/beta) was numbered this period. The remaining active regions, although numerous, were little changed and relatively quiet in comparison to the aforementioned flare events. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a slight chance for further X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 19-21 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 19-21 Jul. There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels on 19-21 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected background-like conditions. Total field was 2-5 nT, the Bz component was mostly at or near neutral, and solar wind speeds averaged between ~310 to ~370 km/s. Phi was predominantly in a positive solar sector. .Forecast... Conditions are likely to become enhanced due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS and persist through 19-20 Jul. An additional enhancement is anticipated late 20 Jul and into 21 Jul due to the arrival of the 16 Jul CMEs. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected through 19 Jul due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on 20 Jul, with minor storms likely on 21 Jul, due to the arrival of the 16 Jul CMEs.