Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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538
FXXX12 KWNP 150031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Jul 15 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3738 (S09E53,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced the strongest event of the period, an
X1.2 flare (R3-Strong) at 14/0234 UTC. The region remained the most
complex on the visible disk. Minor development was observed in its
leader and intermediate spots.

Region 3752 (N22E67, Hax/alpha) was numbered as it rotated onto the disk
from the NE limb. Regions 3743 (S08E05, Dai/beta) and 3744 (N15E13,
Dso/beta) both underwent minor growth. The remaining numbered active
regions on the disk were either mostly stable or in gradual decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to reach moderate levels
(R1-R1/Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for R3 (Strong), over 15-17
Jul.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels over 15-17 Jul. There is a slight chance for an
enhancement of the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at S1 (Minor) storm
levels over 15-17 Jul due to the location and flare potential of Region
3738.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
A nominal solar wind environment prevailed throughout the period. Total
field strength ranged from 1-7 nT and no significant periods of
southward Bz were observed. Solar wind speeds were slow, being mostly
observed between 270-350 km/s. Phi angle was variable.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are likely to continue at or near nominal
conditions from 15-17 Jul.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to continue at quiet levels over 15-17
Jul.