Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
971 FXXX12 KWNP 160031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jul 16 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels due to three M-class flares from Region 3738 (S09W68, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta). The largest was an M2.7/Sn at 15/0937 UTC. Associated with the flare was a slow, narrow CME off the W limb beginning at 15/1000 UTC. Modelling of the event showed no Earth-directed component. Slight decay was observed in the smaller spots of Region 3738. Growth and consolidation was observed in the intermediate spots of Region 3751 (S08E54, Dsi/beta-gamma). Slight growth was observed in Regions 3748 (N14E14, Bxo/beta) and 3753 (N12W22, Dao/beta). New Region 3754 (N23E69, Cro/beta) was numbered. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate), with a slight chance for X-class flare activity (R3, Strong) on 16-18 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 16-18 Jul. There is a slight chance S1 (Minor) storm levels over 16-18 Jul due to the location and flare potential of Region 3738. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were slightly enhanced with solar wind speed ranging from 285-342 km/s. Total field increased up to 13 nT while the Bz component reached as far south as -10 nT. Phi angle was variable. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels on 16-17 Jul. By mid to late on 18 Jul, conditions are likely to become enhanced due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected through 17 Jul. Unsettled to active levels are likely on 18 Jul with the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.