Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
831 FXXX12 KWNP 171231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Jul 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels as Region 3738, no longer visible, produced and X1.9/1B flare (R3-Strong) at 16/1326 UTC. Accompanying the flare were Type II (398 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, a Castelli U radio signature, as well as a CME off the W limb beginning at 16/1336 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Analysis of the CME showed no Earth-directed component. Next, Region 3753 (N11W50, Dai/beta) produced a M1.6/1N flare at 16/2124 UTC, and Region 3744 (N16W30, Cao/beta) responded with a M1.9 flare at 16/2206 UTC. Type II and IV radio sweeps were reported by USAF observatories in association with the M1.9 flare event. However, both of these flares appear have to produced faint shock as observed by SOHO LASCO C2 imagery first seen just before 16/2312 UTC. Modeling of these events suggests mostly shock arrival first by midday on 20 Jul followed by a second shock arrival early on the 21st. Finally, Region 3743 (S09W44, Eai/beta) was the culprit of a M5.0/2B flare at 17/0639 UTC, which was quickly followed by an additional M3.4 flare at 0708 UTC. Both flares were accompanied by type II radio sweeps with the former having a tenflare of 560 SFU and a type IV sweep as well. Although, GOES SUVI 304 imagery suggests the presence of ejecta from the M5 flare event, we currently await updated SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery to preform a proper analysis to determine the presence of any Earth-directed CME. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) with a chance for further X-class flares (R3, Strong) on 17 Jul. X-class flare probabilities are expected to decrease to a slight chance on 18-19 Jul as Region 3738 rotates further around the W limb. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on 17-19 Jul. There is a chance for S1 (Minor) storm levels on 17 Jul due to the location and flare potential of Region 3738. As region 3738 rotates further around the west limb on 18-19 Jul, probabilities decrease to a slight chance. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected waning CME influence. Total field decreased from 14 nT to 6-7 nT, and the Bz component was mostly benign. Solar wind speeds gradually increased to near 400 km/s before gradually decreasing to ~360 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly positive. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish through the remainder of 17 Jul. By mid to late on 18 Jul, conditions are likely to become enhanced due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled levels are expected through 19 Jul with active periods likely on 18 Jul due to the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.