001
FXUS63 KDDC 072311
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
611 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms possible across far western Kansas this
evening then be confined to along the KS/OK border overnight

- A Dry pattern emerges tomorrow and continues into next weekend

- Highs in the mid 90s return next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A few scattered showers will remain possible this afternoon across
western Kansas.  Otherwise expect partly to mostly cloudy skies
throughout the day.  Highs should only reach into the upper 70s to
around 80 degrees. Additional thunderstorms will develop across
eastern Colorado later this afternoon and move into far western
Kansas this evening. These storms are not expected to be severe
but the strongest will be capable of producing heavy rain and
gusty winds. This convection is then confined to along the KS/OK
border overnight with continued partly to mostly cloudy skies
elsewhere. Lows tonight look to dip into the upper 50s to low
60s.

With the exception of a few lingering showers along the KS/OK
border in the morning, dry conditions are expected tomorrow with
skies becoming mostly clear by the afternoon. This continues
through the remainder of the week as an upper level trough moves
east of the area with an upper level high over the western
United States. This will create northwest flow aloft which
should suppress any activity from forming across western Kansas.
Temperatures should remain below normal through the first part
of the week with highs only in the 80s. 90s then return mid to
late part of the week with mid 90s next weekend as the
aforementioned upper level high moves into the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions will be in place across the entire area though at
least about 04 to 06 UTC before scattered showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain spreads into the western
third of the area, most likely impacting GCK and LBL with
locally heavy rain and reduced visibility to under a mile for
some brief period overnight. The greatest time window for such
impacts to the Terminals will be in the 7-10z window, and to a
lesser chances, similar risk might be found at KDDC, just nor as
likely (20% chances around DDC as compared to about a 30-60
percent chance at GCK to Liberal. For now have placed some VCTS
for those western terminal in lieu of better confidence closer
to the 06z issuance.


&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Russell