168
FXUS63 KDDC 080711
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
211 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty thunderstorms possible this afternoon.

- The weather pattern will trend drier from the midweek through
  next weekend.

- Temperatures will also heat up back to July standards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

07z observations and upper air analysis has a band of passing
rain showers mainly located in far southwest Kansas around
Johnson and Elkhart. These rain showers and storms are in
association with a passing shortwave in the northwest flow
in the northern Oklahoma panhandle. Elsewhere in eastern
Colorado a surface high pressure has developed and continues to
build and this will keep our winds fairly calm over the next
couple of days.

Throughout today after the early morning rain exits and falls
apart we will be left with a residual outflow boundary that
various CAM models has setting up roughly along the highway 50
corridor. By late this afternoon as the upper level winds will
continue out of the northwest we should see another shortwave
move in and with 4-6 (C) 700 mb temps this will present a weak
CAP and a few pop up storms are possible anywhere along the
outflow boundary through sunset. Skies should also clear through
the morning and early afternoon to help warm up the lower
atmosphere. Highs today should continue to be a bit below
average with lower to mid 80s.

We should see a slow warming trend in the mid week. The large
upper level trough in the central and eastern CONUS will be
present for Tuesday and Wednesday however the large ridge over
the western CONUS should start to make progress eastward over
these two days. By Wednesday the ensembles are in good agreement
that the upper level winds should start switching from the
northwest to the west allowing the much warmer air in. High
temperatures greater than 90 degrees on Tuesday still have low
probabilities for much of southwest Kansas (>20%) with the
exception of Medicine Lodge. By Wednesday highs greater than 90
degrees will be at 50-60% probabilities across southwest Kansas
and forecast NBMv4.2 highs are at 90-92 degrees.

From Thursday through Sunday the long term upper air ensembles
have the 594 dm high all across the western and central CONUS
and pushes the jet stream to along the CONUS-Canadian border
pretty much negating any passing upper level waves to give us
better rain chances. 850 mb temps will gradually warm into the
26-30 (C) range and highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s will
become the norm as probabilities of greater than 100 degree
highs are at 20-40% across southwest Kansas this weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

In general we will have VFR flight category and winds under 12
kts during the TAF time period. Between 06-09Z and are of rain
showers will move through western Kansas that could briefly
bring some light rain to GCK and LBL. There is a small
possibility (~20%) of MVFR flight category for GCK and LBL
during this time.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro