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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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358 FXUS63 KDDC 081600 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1100 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Spotty thunderstorms possible this afternoon. - The weather pattern will trend drier from the midweek through next weekend. - Temperatures will also heat up back to July standards. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 07z observations and upper air analysis has a band of passing rain showers mainly located in far southwest Kansas around Johnson and Elkhart. These rain showers and storms are in association with a passing shortwave in the northwest flow in the northern Oklahoma panhandle. Elsewhere in eastern Colorado a surface high pressure has developed and continues to build and this will keep our winds fairly calm over the next couple of days. Throughout today after the early morning rain exits and falls apart we will be left with a residual outflow boundary that various CAM models has setting up roughly along the highway 50 corridor. By late this afternoon as the upper level winds will continue out of the northwest we should see another shortwave move in and with 4-6 (C) 700 mb temps this will present a weak CAP and a few pop up storms are possible anywhere along the outflow boundary through sunset. Skies should also clear through the morning and early afternoon to help warm up the lower atmosphere. Highs today should continue to be a bit below average with lower to mid 80s. We should see a slow warming trend in the mid week. The large upper level trough in the central and eastern CONUS will be present for Tuesday and Wednesday however the large ridge over the western CONUS should start to make progress eastward over these two days. By Wednesday the ensembles are in good agreement that the upper level winds should start switching from the northwest to the west allowing the much warmer air in. High temperatures greater than 90 degrees on Tuesday still have low probabilities for much of southwest Kansas (>20%) with the exception of Medicine Lodge. By Wednesday highs greater than 90 degrees will be at 50-60% probabilities across southwest Kansas and forecast NBMv4.2 highs are at 90-92 degrees. From Thursday through Sunday the long term upper air ensembles have the 594 dm high all across the western and central CONUS and pushes the jet stream to along the CONUS-Canadian border pretty much negating any passing upper level waves to give us better rain chances. 850 mb temps will gradually warm into the 26-30 (C) range and highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s will become the norm as probabilities of greater than 100 degree highs are at 20-40% across southwest Kansas this weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1111 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024 VFR expected through TAF pd. Light NW to N winds will eventually become light and variable through tonight under a weak MSLP gradient. Light winds will continue tomorrow as the lee trough will remain very weak across Colorado. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Sugden