703
FXUS63 KDDC 200400
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Updated Aviation/Key Messages...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  Saturday morning.

- Afternoon temperatures will remain several degrees below
  normal for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

19Z observations and upper air analysis show a developing MCS
situated from far northeast Colorado through central Nebraska with
our first severe report of wind northwest of Wray, Colorado.  This
line is in association with a 500 mb shortwave and we also have a
shortwave in north central Colorado which will also be a focus for
thunderstorm development this evening.  At the surface a 1009 mb low
in southeast Colorado has led to a stronger pressure gradient in
southwest Kansas thus we`ve had stronger south to southwest winds.

Tonight the advertised MCS will enter into our northwest zones
(Syracuse to Hays) roughly around 00Z and quickly move south and
east through the rest of our area through midnight.  HREF ensembles
have the greatest CAPE and theta e advection roughly along and west
of highway 83 between 8-11 pm and CAM models have latched on to the
stronger wind gusts in these areas where up to 70 mph is possible.
What CAMs have been struggling with is timing as the RAP has sped up
the prog of the line and the HRRR has slowed it down with the RRFS
being in the middle.  At this stage the RRFS is showing the best
timing which would put the highest impacts between 7-11 pm.  Hail
looks less of a threat with the large amounts of water loading in
the line plus the mode likely transitioned from supercell to squall
line that quarters would be the largest hail expected.  The
exception could be areas along and north of I-70 (WaKeeney to Hays)
where we still could have some supercelluar characteristics to the
storms.  After 10 pm the CAMs and HREF ensembles seem to agree the
instability should quickly diminish and the line will become more
general thunderstorms with pockets of heavy rain.  Ability of
reaching 0.25 inch or more of rain looks good as we have widespread
60-80% chances for almost all of southwest Kansas with the exception
of our far southeast and isolated 1 inch or more amounts are at 20-
30% for areas west of a Hays to Dodge City line.

Saturday the vort max should depart into central Oklahoma and DNVA
will lead to breaks in the clouds by late morning.  Post MCS
environment should be worked over much of the morning and combining
with northerly winds we should see storm chances low (>20%) through
the early afternoon.  Temperatures should be refreshing with highs
in the low 80s.  By late afternoon HREF ensembles and CAMs have a
developing vort max and increasing 700-850 frontogenesis roughly for
areas along and east of highway 83.  20-40% POPs are placed in these
areas as the storm mode should widely scattered in nature. Currently
there is no severe risk for Saturday but with CAPE values ~1000
J/kg, higher theta e values, and 0-6 km bulk shear values at ~30 kts
by 7 pm near Pratt...we may see a marginal risk introduced for some
isolated hail up to quarters and 60 mph gusts.

Early next week ensemble clusters show the upper air pattern
continuing to have a long wave trough over the central and eastern
CONUS with the 594 dm anticyclone situated over Nevada.  This will
keep northwest flow in place for early next week and 850 mb temps in
the 17-20 (C) range.  Mean high temperatures will be in the lower
80s for Monday and Tuesday.  With northwest flow in place we should
expect periodic shortwaves to move through the afternoon and evening
hours which will provide 20-30 POPs in southwest Kansas during this
time. Ensembles are trending in the day 5-7 range with the 594 dm
high moving eastward and spreading further into the Rockies. This
will both start to increase our temperatures and actively shut off
the rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

Outside of any convective influences, VFR will continue through
this TAF cycle, with a mix of mid and high clouds. Radar at
04z depicted scattered thunderstorms in NW KS moving due south,
and these will spread south through SW KS through 12z Sat.
Confidence of direct convective impacts at any airport are very
low, so kept only some VCTS/CB mentions for now overnight. Winds
will remain light outside of convection, where strong erratic
outflows are possible. VFR and dry weather will prevail
Saturday, with light winds trending N/NEly.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Turner