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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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218 FXUS63 KDDC 150806 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 306 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A moderate level of heat risk continues through this evening. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tonight and Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall and marginally severe storms are more likely (60%) Tuesday night. - Not as hot, more comfortable temperatures begin Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Another hot day today is anticipated, probably hotter than the last two as temperatures climb into the 104-108 degree range, for actual 2 meter temperatures, with accompanying surface dew points falling to the upper 50s west and still hovering around the 60 degree mark in the eastern counties driving heat indices even higher and possibly as high as the 105 to 109 degree range. The heat advisory for the afternoon remains intact across the entire area. We are still 83 degrees in Dodge at 2 am. The heat risk category right now is in the major category (3 out of 5), and defined as a level of heat that affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Additionally impacts are likely in some health systems, heat-sensitive industries and infrastructure. Convection is anticipated, (by the number of CAMS producing it) along a prefrontal trough over west central and northwest Kansas later this afternoon, and may allow storms to begin impacting anywhere from Syracuse to Scott City by 6 to 7 pm CDT. The HREF shows a widespread 700 mb temperatures of at least 15 degrees. With such a deep hot atmosphere, and little shear, the marginally severe convective storm environment looks primarily conducive to damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. Between any convective outflow surface airmass modification and the affects of an advancing cold front turning winds out of the northeast on Tuesday, temperatures will be trimmed abut 10 degrees or more on Tuesday. The NBM 25th to 75th percentile forecasts for afternoon highs range from upper 80s north to mid 90s south, to the warmer 75th percentile, with a more widely distributed mid and upper 90s forecast. The trimmed temperatures forecast comes with an uptick in atmospheric moisture content as the HREF 1.5 PWAT spreads southward behind the cold front for the 16th through 18th (Tuesday through Thursday). Reflecting at the surface with more widespread upper 60s dew points, this more unstable, better moisture environment will be a better fuel setup for the many CAMs that are showing scattered to numerous thunderstorms spreading east across Colorado during the day, and poised to move across western Kansas in the evening. Precipitation probabilities Tuesday evening have ramped up to 70 percent in the west between 7 pm and midnight, and 50 to 60 percent everywhere else beyond midnight. With the easterly upslope post frontal winds and MCS ongoing overnight, the storms and showers might be lingering Wednesday morning with much cloudiness to significantly slow the typical diurnal temperature rise. Ensembles means have continued to show 80 for highs through the rest of the week and tempered lows in the 60s. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1156 PM CDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Decaying convection over the southeast Colorado counties has produced a convective outflow boundary that should reach the GCK airport between about 0515 and 0530 UTC. Post frontal winds were north between 26 and 40 knots, and momentum is naturally expected to wane significantly. Dissipating mid level clouds this afternoon will be coupled with light westerly surface winds as an overall high pressure regime aloft remains in place. By the evening hours, or between 23 and 01 UTC, surface based thunderstorm development is possible (10-20% areal coverage, along a prefrontal trough over nw Kansas, potentially reaching the Garden City to Hays corridor in the pre sunset hours Monday evening. Predictability is too low for any prevailing mention in TAF, and marginal as well to even call it in the vicinity at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Hot conditions Today will be followed by thunderstorm chances (20-30%) this evening with potential for thunderstorm wind gust and therefore variable wind shifts. Outside of these storm risks, expect light southerly winds Today , but a cold front Tuesday will bring those winds out of the northeast, with a little more gust. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. && $$ DISCUSSION...Russell AVIATION...Russell FIRE WEATHER...MR