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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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685 FXUS63 KDDC 200700 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 ...Updated Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday morning. - Afternoon temperatures will remain several degrees below normal for the next several days. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024 Midnight infrared satellite and radar imagery depicted a gradually weakening MCS (mesoscale convective system) entering the northwest zones. This complex has produced several wind gusts of 60-65 mph, and although infrared cloud tops are gradually trending warmer, these storms will continue to produce strong outflows to near 50 mph for the next several hours. 00z NAM and several CAMs including 00z ARW propel this activity southeastward across SW KS through 7 am Saturday, and aligned pops with that expectation. Sufficient bulk shear may try to keep some of the storms relatively organized, but decreasing instability will work to minimize outflows. Scattered showers and embedded thunder are expected to persist across the southeast zones through early Saturday morning near the associated triggering shortwave. By afternoon, subsidence behind the shortwave will become increasingly dominant, and rain coverage will be quite low. After about 4 pm, heating and instability are forecast to be sufficient for more scattered thunderstorms favoring the western zones, where SPC has included a marginal 5% wind/hail probability. Light winds will trend north/northeast through afternoon, with afternoon temperatures several degrees below normal in the 80s. Synoptic pattern remains very static across North America through Sunday, with the strong dominant upper anticyclone over the Great Basin, and persist midlevel troughing from eastern Kansas into the Corn Belt. Light northeast winds will prevail Sunday, continuing the import of weak cool advection. With models trimming another 1-2C at 850 mb, afternoon temperatures are expected to be restricted to the lower to mid 80s. This is quite the refreshing bargain for late July, when the normal highs are in the lower to mid 90s. A beautiful midsummer weekend with comfortable temperatures for the time of year, along with light winds. Models show no changes in the synoptic flow regime Monday and Tuesday, with SW KS remaining sandwiched between intense 600 dm ridging over Nevada, and persistent troughing to the northeast. Below normal afternoon temperatures in the 80s will continue both days, along with the bonus of light winds. Wednesday onward, ensembles agree the synoptic pattern will be resistant to change, with a gentle warming trend expected, as high pressure expands onto the plains with higher heights, forcing troughing to become for centered over the Great Lakes. Still, this process is only expected to return afternoon temperatures to near late July normals, in the mid 90s. 00z GEFS ensemble members show probability of 2m temperatures > 90 near 100% Thursday and Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1100 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Outside of any convective influences, VFR will continue through this TAF cycle, with a mix of mid and high clouds. Radar at 04z depicted scattered thunderstorms in NW KS moving due south, and these will spread south through SW KS through 12z Sat. Confidence of direct convective impacts at any airport are very low, so kept only some VCTS/CB mentions for now overnight. Winds will remain light outside of convection, where strong erratic outflows are possible. VFR and dry weather will prevail Saturday, with light winds trending N/NEly. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Turner