259
FXUS63 KDDC 201001
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
501 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through
  Saturday morning.

- Afternoon temperatures will remain several degrees below
  normal for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Midnight infrared satellite and radar imagery depicted a
gradually weakening MCS (mesoscale convective system) entering
the northwest zones. This complex has produced several wind
gusts of 60-65 mph, and although infrared cloud tops are
gradually trending warmer, these storms will continue to produce
strong outflows to near 50 mph for the next several hours. 00z
NAM and several CAMs including 00z ARW propel this activity
southeastward across SW KS through 7 am Saturday, and aligned
pops with that expectation. Sufficient bulk shear may try to
keep some of the storms relatively organized, but decreasing
instability will work to minimize outflows. Scattered showers
and embedded thunder are expected to persist across the
southeast zones through early Saturday morning near the
associated triggering shortwave. By afternoon, subsidence behind
the shortwave will become increasingly dominant, and rain
coverage will be quite low. After about 4 pm, heating and
instability are forecast to be sufficient for more scattered
thunderstorms favoring the western zones, where SPC has included
a marginal 5% wind/hail probability. Light winds will trend
north/northeast through afternoon, with afternoon temperatures
several degrees below normal in the 80s.

Synoptic pattern remains very static across North America
through Sunday, with the strong dominant upper anticyclone over
the Great Basin, and persist midlevel troughing from eastern
Kansas into the Corn Belt. Light northeast winds will prevail
Sunday, continuing the import of weak cool advection. With
models trimming another 1-2C at 850 mb, afternoon temperatures
are expected to be restricted to the lower to mid 80s. This is
quite the refreshing bargain for late July, when the normal
highs are in the lower to mid 90s. A beautiful midsummer weekend
with comfortable temperatures for the time of year, along with
light winds.

Models show no changes in the synoptic flow regime Monday and
Tuesday, with SW KS remaining sandwiched between intense 600 dm
ridging over Nevada, and persistent troughing to the northeast.
Below normal afternoon temperatures in the 80s will continue
both days, along with the bonus of light winds. Wednesday
onward, ensembles agree the synoptic pattern will be resistant
to change, with a gentle warming trend expected, as high
pressure expands onto the plains with higher heights, forcing
troughing to become for centered over the Great Lakes. Still,
this process is only expected to return afternoon temperatures
to near late July normals, in the mid 90s. 00z GEFS ensemble
members show probability of 2m temperatures > 90 near 100%
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 501 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR is expected to prevail through the majority of this TAF
period, with scattered mid/high clouds and light NE winds
prevailing. Isolated thunderstorms are possible at peak heating
late Saturday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs. Consensus of short term models is hinting at fog
and/or stratus formation near the end of this TAF package, and
began leaning the end of the TAFs in that direction 09-12z Sun.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner