Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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373 FXUS63 KDDC 181656 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1156 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below normal afternoon temperatures - mainly in the 80s - will continue through this weekend and early next week. - Rain chances are minimal Thursday and Friday, with most locations dry. - The next organized thunderstorm complex is expected Friday night and early Saturday, when locally heavy rainfall is again possible. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 Midnight infrared satellite imagery indicated convective debris clouds across SW KS, with decaying remnant showers near the northwest zones per radar. Some CAMS such as 00z ARW, and the 00z NAM try to hold on to some of this activity across western zones through sunrise, but this appears unlikely given current trends and general lack of instability. More likely, the small MCS in SE Colorado will progress southward into the NW Panhandles by sunrise Thursday, largely bypassing Kansas. Otherwise, a quiet summer night, with light winds and sunrise temperatures in the 60s. Light southeast winds will prevail Thursday, with a mix of mid and high clouds expected. Southeast winds will average 10-20 mph, which will serve to keep dewpoints elevated into the lower 60s. Despite the moisture, models predict little forcing and little instability, so most locations will remain dry. With NWly midlevel flow overlaying the moist southeast winds, a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible in the late afternoon or evening, but the probability of measurable rain at any one location is very low, < 20%. Afternoon temperatures will resemble those observed Wednesday, in the mid to upper 80s, which several degrees below normal for July. 596 dm subtropical high over Arizona 7 pm Thursday will continue relatively in this position through Friday, with little change in the synoptic regime. Models do show modest warming of 1-2C at 850 mb, allowing for high temperatures closer to normal, near 90 or in the lower 90s. The warmer temperatures will be encouraged by stronger lee troughing and improved mixing, with stronger south winds of 15-25 mph. Again most of daylight Friday will be dry for most locations. Models have been consistent on the next MCS development, and the next best chance of widespread/significant rainfall, on Friday night and early Saturday. 00z GFS/GEFS remain most consistent with a shortwave propogating southward through the central plains, denting the eastern periphery of the ridge, and aiding in MCS development across western Kansas. 00z GEFS ensemble members show a 60-70% probability of QPF > 0.10 inch favoring the northern zones Friday night, a notion supported by the GFS deterministic run with an MCS over northern zones. EPS also shows MCS development, favoring more of the northeast zones. NBM pops show a relative max in the midnight - sunrise Saturday time frame, with chance to likely category maintained. Typical of summer, the risks will be restricted to locally heavy rainfall and strong/marginally severe outflow winds of 50-60 mph. SPC marginal 5% wind probability was pulled further southward into the northern zones Friday night, which is resonable given current model trends. Saturday through at least next Wednesday, models show remarkably little change in a static synoptic pattern across North America, with a highly amplified flow featuring strong ridging over the Great Basin and general troughing from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes. This pattern will not allow the heat to return to SW KS; in fact, Sunday and Monday appear to be the coolest days, during which afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach 80 when light northeast surface winds are most established. This is quite the feat for late July, the typically hottest time of year, when average highs are in the mid 90s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024 In general we will have VFR flight category for all airports during the TAF time period. Wind gusts between 18-00z could briefly be as strong as 20 kts at times. With the upper level winds continuing out of the northwest we could see an upper level disturbance move in after 00Z which will lead to ~15% of an isolated thunderstorm around GCK between 00-06Z. Later tonight an upper level warm front could lead to spotty thunderstorm development around DDC and HYS between 06-12Z however thunderstorm probs will be 10-20%. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...Turner