024
FXUS63 KDDC 181902
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong signal of an overnight MCS event Friday night and Saturday
morning

- Temperatures trending cooler for the weekend and early next week

- Spotty rain chances will continue through early next week


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

18z observations and upper air analysis shows a 5960 dm anticyclone
centered over the 4 corners region leading to northwest flow through
the central and northern plains.  A departing vort max is moving
through central Oklahoma which has led to subsidence and sunny to
partly cloudy skies in southwest Kansas.  Upstream an approaching
vort max is located in central Nebraska and a developing shortwave
is situated in northeast Colorado.

Tonight two areas of convection are possible with the 12Z CAM
signals.  One area will be in eastern Colorado through northwest
Kansas by early evening with the approaching shortwave moving in
from Colorado and Nebraska.  This area will have the strongest
forcing aloft with an fgen band in the 700-850 mb layer straddling
the KS-CO border accompanied with a 500 mb vort max.  By the time
the storms arrive to our CWA it should be post sunset so CAPE values
will have dropped to the 500-600 J/kg range and 0-6 km bulk shear
values will be 30-35 kts.  Overall the storms will be strong to
potentially marginal severe by the time they arrive.  Second round
of convection is hinted at after midnight along and east of the
highway 283 corridor with modest theta e advection and a warm front
in the 700 mb level breaking the cap and spotty elevated
thunderstorms developing.  POPs for both of these areas will be ~20%
given the isolated nature of the storms.

Friday with the departing shortwave we should once again have DNVA
and susbsidence leading to clearing skies.  850 mb temperatures
should warm through the day with decent WAA leading to 26-27 (C)
along the Colorado border and closer to 20-24 (C) in our central and
eastern zones.  With this we should be a few degrees warmer with
forecast ensemble mean highs in the upper 80s east to low to mid 90s
west.  A much stronger signal for rain is coming for Friday night as
a strong wave for July standards will come out of the northwest from
central Nebraska through central Kansas during the overnight hours.
Best severe weather potential will be in Nebraska and northwest
Kansas where CAPE values and theta e advection will be the highest
and the storms should gradually weaken to general thunderstorms as
they move south and east through our CWA.  This system should bring
some healthy rains to southwest Kansas as probablities of > 0.10
inch of rain in general are 30-50% for areas along and north of a
Liberal to Great Bend line and locally higher amounts of rain
greater than 1 inch are possible in the stronger storms.

Long range ensembles keep a stout longwave trough through the
central and eastern CONUS and the 5940 anticyclone across the
western CONUS suggesting this pattern of cooler temperatures and off
and on rain chances will continue for several days.  NBMv4.2 POPs of
20-30% are included through at least Tuesday suggesting that the
nature of the rain will continue to be spotty thunderstorms as
opposed to a large complex at this time.  By mid next week ensemble
trends show the 5940 dm anticyclone starting to build further east
which will gradually move the trough east as well and we may start
to see a slight warming trend in temperatures and lesser chances of
rain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

In general we will have VFR flight category for all airports
during the TAF time period. Wind gusts between 18-00z could
briefly be as strong as 20 kts at times. With the upper level
winds continuing out of the northwest we could see an upper
level disturbance move in after 00Z which will lead to ~15% of
an isolated thunderstorm around GCK between 00-06Z. Later
tonight an upper level warm front could lead to spotty
thunderstorm development around DDC and HYS between 06-12Z
however thunderstorm probs will be 10-20%.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tatro
AVIATION...Tatro