440
FXUS63 KDDC 190700
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

...Updated Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A thunderstorm complex is expected to bring widespread
  rainfall, locally heavy, along with areas of damaging winds
  Friday night and early Saturday.

- Afternoon temperatures will remain below July normals - mainly
  in the 80s - through this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

A quiet summer night was in progress across SW KS at midnight,
with cirrus convective anvil debris drifting overhead embedded
in the NWly flow aloft. With a light southeast wind prevailing,
temperatures will be in the 60s at sunrise Friday.

Stronger lee troughing is forecast over eastern Colorado Friday
afternoon, with 00z NAM deepening a 1004 mb surface low near
Limon at 4 pm. This will increase south winds noticeably after
10 am Friday, with gusts to near 30 mph. Followed the strongest
wind guidance available, near the 00z MAV, with the strongest
winds and gusts along the preferred US 83 corridor Friday midday
and afternoon. With the improved mixing, and models warming
850 mb temperatures 3-4C over Thursday, plus near full solar
insolation, afternoon temperatures will be several degrees
warmer and closer to normal Friday. Increased max temperature
grid across the board by several degrees, with most locations
near 90 at 5 pm, and lower 90s across western zones. Modest
instability will build through the afternoon, with CAPE >
1000 J/kg, but with no forcing evident, kept all grids dry
through 7 pm Friday.

Models have been consistently forecasting a shortwave to weaken
the northeast periphery of the subtropical ridge Friday night
into early Saturday, with thunderstorms developing over NW KS
Friday evening. 00z NAM/ARW and various other CAMs depict this
expected evolution, and thunderstorms across NW KS are expected
to enter the northern zones around 9-10 pm Friday, supported by
00z HRRR timing. At least a loosely organized MCS is probable,
moving southeast through SW KS through early morning Saturday.
Instability looks less than impressive ahead of this system, but
still strong to marginally severe outflow winds are likely from
the expected MCS, focusing on the northern zones, and focused on
late Friday evening before limited instability is depleted.
Given the storm mode of linear/clustering and a well mixed
boundary layer, outflow winds will be the primary risk. After
coordination with SPC, marginal to slight (5-15%) severe wind
probability was expanded southward to include more of SW KS.
Also increase pops further into the likely category Friday night
through early Saturday, with locally heavy rainfall expected.

Light winds trend northerly Saturday behind a weak cold front,
with subsidence largely in control behind the expected early
morning MCS. As such, along with surrounding WFOs, pops were
reduced significantly for daytime Saturday, and afternoon
temperatures are expected to be reduced back to the 80s.

The synoptic pattern across North America continues to look
remarkably stagnant Saturday through much of next week, with
very strong amplified high pressure finding a home over Nevada
and the Great Basin for several days. This in conjunction with
persistent troughing from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes,
will ensure below normal afternoon temperatures through the
period. Ensemble probabilities continue to outline Sunday and
Monday as being the coolest days, when models continue to show
afternoon temperatures struggling to reach 80. Given the NWly
midlevel steering flow aloft, can`t rule out a thunderstorm or
two each day Sunday through Wednesday, but coverage will be very
limited, and thus NBM pops are necessarily very low. Most
locations will be dry, with pleasant temperatures considering
the climatological hottest time of year. Over time next week,
500 mb heights will rise back > 590 dm by Wednesday, as the
intense upper high over the Great Basin intensifies to near
600 dm. As such, afternoon temperatures will gradually return
closer to normal, back into the lower 90s, by the end of this
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1104 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF cycle. After 15z Fri, south
winds will increase at all airports, gusting 25-27 kts. A
thunderstorm complex (MCS) is expected to arrive in SW KS near
the end of this TAF period, and using 00z ARW/NAM as a guide,
included VCTS/CB mentions at the end of this TAF package at all
airports. Strong outflow winds to near 50 kts may accompany
these storms in the 03-09z Sat time frame.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Turner
AVIATION...Turner