![National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration](/build/images/header/noaa.d87e0251.png)
![National Weather Service](/build/images/header/nws.4e6585d8.png)
![United States Department of Commerce](/build/images/header/doc.b38ba91a.png)
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
716 FXUS63 KDDC 191656 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1156 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A thunderstorm complex is expected to bring widespread rainfall, locally heavy, along with areas of damaging winds Friday night and early Saturday. - Afternoon temperatures will remain below July normals - mainly in the 80s - through this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 A quiet summer night was in progress across SW KS at midnight, with cirrus convective anvil debris drifting overhead embedded in the NWly flow aloft. With a light southeast wind prevailing, temperatures will be in the 60s at sunrise Friday. Stronger lee troughing is forecast over eastern Colorado Friday afternoon, with 00z NAM deepening a 1004 mb surface low near Limon at 4 pm. This will increase south winds noticeably after 10 am Friday, with gusts to near 30 mph. Followed the strongest wind guidance available, near the 00z MAV, with the strongest winds and gusts along the preferred US 83 corridor Friday midday and afternoon. With the improved mixing, and models warming 850 mb temperatures 3-4C over Thursday, plus near full solar insolation, afternoon temperatures will be several degrees warmer and closer to normal Friday. Increased max temperature grid across the board by several degrees, with most locations near 90 at 5 pm, and lower 90s across western zones. Modest instability will build through the afternoon, with CAPE > 1000 J/kg, but with no forcing evident, kept all grids dry through 7 pm Friday. Models have been consistently forecasting a shortwave to weaken the northeast periphery of the subtropical ridge Friday night into early Saturday, with thunderstorms developing over NW KS Friday evening. 00z NAM/ARW and various other CAMs depict this expected evolution, and thunderstorms across NW KS are expected to enter the northern zones around 9-10 pm Friday, supported by 00z HRRR timing. At least a loosely organized MCS is probable, moving southeast through SW KS through early morning Saturday. Instability looks less than impressive ahead of this system, but still strong to marginally severe outflow winds are likely from the expected MCS, focusing on the northern zones, and focused on late Friday evening before limited instability is depleted. Given the storm mode of linear/clustering and a well mixed boundary layer, outflow winds will be the primary risk. After coordination with SPC, marginal to slight (5-15%) severe wind probability was expanded southward to include more of SW KS. Also increase pops further into the likely category Friday night through early Saturday, with locally heavy rainfall expected. Light winds trend northerly Saturday behind a weak cold front, with subsidence largely in control behind the expected early morning MCS. As such, along with surrounding WFOs, pops were reduced significantly for daytime Saturday, and afternoon temperatures are expected to be reduced back to the 80s. The synoptic pattern across North America continues to look remarkably stagnant Saturday through much of next week, with very strong amplified high pressure finding a home over Nevada and the Great Basin for several days. This in conjunction with persistent troughing from the Corn Belt to the Great Lakes, will ensure below normal afternoon temperatures through the period. Ensemble probabilities continue to outline Sunday and Monday as being the coolest days, when models continue to show afternoon temperatures struggling to reach 80. Given the NWly midlevel steering flow aloft, can`t rule out a thunderstorm or two each day Sunday through Wednesday, but coverage will be very limited, and thus NBM pops are necessarily very low. Most locations will be dry, with pleasant temperatures considering the climatological hottest time of year. Over time next week, 500 mb heights will rise back > 590 dm by Wednesday, as the intense upper high over the Great Basin intensifies to near 600 dm. As such, afternoon temperatures will gradually return closer to normal, back into the lower 90s, by the end of this forecast period. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1152 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024 Winds during the afternoon will be breezy at times with 15-20 kt sustained and gusts to 25 kts. Later this evening a MCS will come out of northwest Kansas and sweep through southwest Kansas between 00-09Z. Main threat with the line of storms will be heavy rain and gusty winds which will briefly reduce surface visibilities to 3 SM or less. The storms should VCTS HYS by 01Z, GCK by 02Z, DDC by 03Z, and LBL between 03-04Z. Downburst winds could approach 50 kts especially for GCK and HYS and be in the 40-50 kt range for DDC and LBL. In general we should have VFR flight category through the time period with brief reduction in categories due to lower surface visibilities due to the thunderstorms. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Turner AVIATION...Tatro