354
FXUS63 KDDC 201906
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
206 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 20-30% chance for isolated to widely scattered
  thunderstorms across portions of southwest Kansas this
  evening.

- Below normal high temperatures are expected through early next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak trough axis is
shifting slowly east through central Kansas into eastern Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances (20-30%) pick up across portions of southwest
Kansas early this evening as a weak northwest flow aloft slowly
intensifies across the Western High Plains. Steepening mid-level
lapse rates within a northeasterly upslope flow where sufficient
moisture is providing increased instability (MUCAPE values in
excess of 1000 to 1500 J/kg), will set the stage for diurnally
driven thunderstorm development in eastern Colorado as H5 vort
maxima cycle southeast off an upper ridge axis. Storms may then
spread into extreme southwest Kansas this evening where the HREF
suggests a 20-30% probability of sporadic 6-hr QPF exceeding a
tenth of an inch. Similar conditions are expected each day into
early next week with ridging aloft holding firm across the
Intermountain West through at least Tuesday according to medium
range ensembles.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are expected tonight with little
change to the general airmass across the high plains. The HREF
suggests a 40-60% probability of lows dropping below 65F across
central and much of southwest Kansas with only a 10-20% probability
in south central Kansas. Below normal temperatures are forecast
Sunday as prevailing northeasterlies continue to reinforce a cooler
airmass across the area. The HREF shows a 70-90% probability of
afternoon highs nudging above 80F with similar temperatures
expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through
late afternoon. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
then be possible across extreme southwest Kansas early this evening,
potentially affecting the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL. Otherwise,
expected mainly VFR conditions to continue through early Sunday.
North-northeast winds around 10 to 20kt through late afternoon are
expected to gradually subside this evening as a surface trough axis
edges east through central Kansas into eastern Kansas.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson