Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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947 FXUS63 KDDC 012301 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 601 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms across the forecast area with convection in the west Monday, widespread on Tuesday, and in the north Wednesday. - Tuesday as the best setup conducive to severe weather development although can not be ruled out Monday and Wednesday. - The remainder of the forecast period will be predominantly dry with highs mostly in the 80/90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Currently, an upper-level trough is moving eastward and replacing the trough dominated regime. A surface low is also moving eastward along the WY/CO presently. Associated with this low, cumulus has already begun development in eastern Colorado. Convection is expected to continue to develop, but stay sub-severe due to a marginal environment. NAMNST forecast soundings have around 1000 J/kg of CAPE and effective shear <40 knots. The environment is not prohibitive enough to eliminate the potential for severe weather as storms could briefly strengthen enough to produce severe hail or winds. The far NW forecast zones hold the best chances (up to 25% from ensembles) to see storms and any severe weather. CAMs have convection entering Kansas around 0Z. Into the evening, lingering storms could (ensembles show up to 30%) impact the western half of the forecast area with accumulating precipitation. As this boundary passes, winds are expected to shift from the south to from the west. On Tuesday after warming up and seeing the southeastern zones seeing apparent temperatures >100F, a cold front will pass through in the afternoon providing some reprieve, but more pressingly provide the opportunity for severe weather. The far eastern zones are in a slight risk, but there is appreciable uncertainty on exact locations that will be impacted. Unlike Monday, the convection will have an ample forcing mechanism and dynamical support. The NAM places the right entrance region of the upper-level jet over much of SW Kansas, sufficient mid-level CVA, and ML CAPE of >2500 J/kg. With steep lapse rates and a moist column of air, the primary limiter will be a relatively modest amount of shear (both near the surface and aloft). The environment is favorable for large hail (2 inches) and strong wind gusts (70 mph), and the bigger question regarding their impacts will lie in their location. The HRW WRF-NSSL localize the best storm potential in our eastern zones while the HRRR extends the higher risk farther southwest. Anywhere storms can initiate, they are capable of producing severe weather and are worth monitoring. After the frontal passage, yet another dramatic wind shift is expected as winds will be coming out of the northeast. Wednesday night will offer another chance for precipitation as ensembles have the northern zones with up to a 50% chance of accumulation. Despite the entire forecast area having a chance (25%+) of precipitation, only the northern zones have a slight risk for severe weather. However, trends in ensembles have subtly been pushing the precipitation forecast farther south; as a result, the risk could continue to expand southward over the coming days. After Wednesday night, Independence day and the remainder of the forecast period is expected to be primarily dry with a largely zonal flow pattern. The LREF has the entire forecast area devoid precipitation accumulations above 0.05 through the forecast period. Ensembles have max temperatures during this dry period predominantly in the 80s and 90s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 558 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. A few passing storms could produce VCTS for GCK and HYS between 01-06Z. Winds in general will be breezy with sustained 12-22 kt winds and gusts 25+ kts. A cold front will move across western Kansas during the afternoon hours on Tuesday and produce a sharp south to north change in the winds which will affect the terminals between 18-22Z. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tatro AVIATION...KBJ