Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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956 FXUS63 KDDC 032002 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 302 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 20 to 40 percent chance for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight, mainly near the Colorado Border and west/north of Garden City. Main hazard will be strong winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall. - A break in the heat can be expected across western Kansas Friday through at least early next week. Highs during this time frame will be in the 80s to lower 90s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 This morning`s ensemble models are in good agreement and had minimal run to run differences over the past few days. They indicate that an upper level trough, located over the Central Rockies earlier today, will move across the West Central High Plains tonight. This first upper wave, based on SPC Meso page will be preceded by a weaker upper wave, as evidenced by SPC Meso Analysis 700mb to 400mb Differential Vorticity. This first upper wave is currently enhancing convection over southwest Kansas as of 1pm this Wednesday afternoon, as the minimal CIN erodes. The storms developing through late day are not expected to be severe, but several locations, mainly east of Highway 283, could see isolated rainfall totals between 1/2 and 1 inch from the isolated steadier and heavier showers. The better chance for strong or severe thunderstorms (20-40%) will accompany the more significant upper level trough approaching western Kansas early tonight based on the SREF 80-90% chance for 0-6km shear to be >40 knots and cooling aloft that will enhance mid level instability. Ensembles also suggests these storms will weaken as they move east across western Kansas sunset but how quickly this will occur it is still unknown. However, conditions still look favorable after 7 pm for locations near the Colorado border and especially west and north of the Garden City area for isolated hail of one inch or greater, along with strong gusty winds of 60-65 mph. These storms will also be capable of producing heavy rainfall, which may result in some minor water issues. As the upper level trough passes the Central Plains late tonight/early Thursday, thunderstorms will taper off from northwest to southeast as a cold front crosses southwest Kansas. The extent of cooling on Thursday is currently unclear due to uncertainty in the timing of the clearing skies. A bit of July sun can quickly warm temperatures over a short duration so have decided to stay close to current guidance with areas south of the Arkansas River having a 60% chance for highs to be greater than 85F. A 50% chance for highs of 90F or higher will be possible in the Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas. From Friday through the upcoming weekend, an upper level ridge will build along the west coast of the United States as an upper trough develops/depends across the Wester Great Lakes Region, leading to a northwesterly flow across the Rockies and central United States. Multiple upper waves are forecast to move along this developing northwest flow towards western Kansas. Each of these upper waves will bring a chance for late day and overnight thunderstorms. In addition to several chances for precipitation this weekend, this northwest flow pattern will favor keeping temperatures a little cooler than usual for this time of year, with highs in the 80s to low 90s instead of near 100. Confidence is high (over 70%) regarding the trend in cooler temperatures and increased precipitation chances from Friday through early next week. However, the exact details on temperatures and timing/local of precipitation remains uncertain due to the variability in the strength of the developing upper ridge and the timings of the subtle upper waves embedded in the northwest flow, which models often struggle to resolve accurately at that far out. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 An upper level trough will exit the Central Rockies and move across the West Central High Plains early tonight. As this trough approaches, scattered thunderstorms (30-50% chance) will be possible late today and early tonight. These thunderstorms tonight will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and wind gusts in excess of 40 knots. Areas with the highest chances for reduced visibilities and stronger winds will be Garden City between 01z and 03z Thursday and Hays between 03z and 06z Thursday. Ensemble cloud ceiling probabilities and the latest CAMS BUFR soundings support an >80% chance for ceilings in the 2000 to 4000ft AGL ahead of the trough and with the scattered thunderstorms. Once the upper trough passes, thunderstorm chances will decrease from west to east as skies clear. Additionally, a cold front will cross southwest Kansas, shifting the winds from the south to the northwest. The general consensus from the CAMS earlier this morning indicates this frontal passage and wind shift will occur between 12 and 18z Thursday across southwest Kansas. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Burgert AVIATION...Burgert