Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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917 FXUS63 KDDC 051716 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - The next round of thunderstorms with locally heavy rain is due Saturday evening through mid-day Sunday. The storms Saturday evening could be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday night and then again Wednesday. - Warmer and drier weather can be expected by Thursday into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 An active weather pattern continues across the central plains. An upper level trough will persist across the plains and upper Midwest through Sunday and then slowly move off to the east. Individual disturbances will advance southeastward through the mean trough, setting the stage for round of thunderstorms. Surface high pressure will persist across the plains today, with light winds and continued pleasant temperatures. By Saturday, westerly mid level flow will increase as the next disturbance approaches the central plains. This will result in a return to south winds and increasing low level moisture and heat. Meanwhile, a mid level cold pool of -10 to -13C will arrive Saturday, resulting in increasing lapse rates and surface based CAPE on the order of 1500-2500 j/kg, especially across far western Kansas and along I-70. A few thunderstorm will form in the afternoon and evening and these could be severe with hail to 2" in diameter and damaging winds given the 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40 kts and strong veering. The isolated evening storms will form into a larger cluster Saturday night into the first half of Sunday and propagate southeastward into south central Kansas. A heavy rain signal remains, with the ECMWF, ICON and CMCE ensemble means showing 20-40% chances of 24-hr rainfall exceeding an inch across parts of central and southwest Kansas (especially Dodge City south and east to Pratt and Coldwater). Highs will reach near 90 Saturday. There is uncertainty in the timing of the larger storm cluster, with some of the ensembles holding off until Sunday morning. Highs Sunday will be cooler in the 70s or 80s depending on how much sun returns in the afternoon. The next disturbance, albeit weaker, will arrive Sunday night, but instability will be less in advance of it given the previous cooling effect from rains and the northerly mid level flow as opposed to northwesterly that often accompanies higher instability. Therefore, a few showers and rumbles of thunder may occur, but a heavy rain signal is absent. Yet another disturbance will approach by Wednesday. Strong instability will be absent given the northerly mid level flow and lack of a warm surge from the south at low levels, but there will still be enough CAPE given the relatively cool 500mb temperatures (-9C) for scattered afternoon and evening storms. Widespread heavy rain is not expected. Northerly mid level flow will persist Thursday and Friday as the main upper level trough moves into the Midwest. With warming mid levels and rising 500mb heights, chances for precipitation are low, with ensemble means showing little to no precipitation. High temperatures will climb back to near 90 for Friday and perhaps lower to mid 90s by Saturday as upper level ridging over the Rockies nudges eastward toward the high plains. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024 A surface ridge axis will cross Kansas over the next 24 hours. As the center of this surface ridge axis moves into central Kansas overnight the light winds will become south southeast at around 10 knots by 12z Saturday. These southerly winds will increase through the morning as surface pressure fall across eastern Colorado in response to an approaching upper level disturbance. BUFR soundings showing VFR condition through early Saturday afternoon. A period of ceilings in the 5000 to 10000ft AGL will be possible at times between 18z today and 00z Saturday. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Finch AVIATION...Burgert