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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
870 ACUS48 KWNS 070842 SWOD48 SPC AC 070841 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in general agreement that a mid-level trough will de-amplify while shifting northeast into New England through the mid to late-week time-frame, before upper ridging builds over much of the CONUS by next weekend. For Days 4-6 (Wednesday - Friday), stronger mid-level flow may overspread a moist and unstable airmass, potentially supporting the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. However, any coverage of severe appears too sparse to highlight with probabilities this far in advance. While there is disagreement in timing among medium-range guidance members, the ECMWF and GFS have a pronounced mid-level impulse and associated 500 mb wind maxima pivoting around the mid-level ridge across the Northern Plains and Great Lakes area sometime around next weekend. Rich low-level moisture beneath a deep-layer of steep lapse rates from an EML plume will foster strong to extreme instability along the periphery of the upper ridge, ahead of the mid-level impulse. It is plausible that one or more severe thunderstorm episodes could unfold if the glancing mid-level impulse can provide enough deep-layer ascent for convective initiation. Of particular concern would be if upscale growth into bow-echo MCSs could occur, as is climatologically favorable for this time of year. However, such events are also notoriously difficult to predict this far in advance, and when considering the disagreement of the placement of synoptic-scale features between medium-range guidance, no severe probabilities have been introduced this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 07/07/2024