449
FNUS28 KWNS 042152
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Thu Jul 04 2024

Valid 061200Z - 121200Z

A strong upper ridge is forecast over the western third of the CONUS
for the majority of the extended period. Stronger flow aloft will
remain on the periphery of the ridge with a subtle trough/jet streak
passing over the Great Basin this weekend. Beneath the ridge,
exceptionally hot temperatures and dry conditions are forecast for
much of the West Coast. This generally stagnant pattern should
remain in place through the weekend before the ridge begins a slow
shift to the east early next week. A subtle trough and southwesterly
flow may eventually develop to the west of the ridge late in the
period. Fire-weather concerns are expected to gradually increase
through early next week.

...Northwest and Great Basin...
As the mid-level jet streak passes east of the upper ridge, surface
winds should increase across parts of the Northwest and Great Basin
with deeper mixing. Model guidance has trended stronger with the
surface winds of 20-30 mph likely across parts of ID and NV
D3/Saturday. With exceptionally warm and dry conditions already in
place, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions appear likely
within dry fuels.

Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions should
continue into D4/Sunday as the upper jet translates southeast into
parts of the southern Great Basin and Southwest. While fuels farther
south are somewhat less receptive due to earlier rainfall,
widespread gusts of 20-25 mph and RH below 15% are likely.
Widespread elevated to critical conditions are possible over much of
UT into portions of AZ and western CO.

...California...
Beneath the 596-600 DAM upper ridge, very warm temperatures are
excepted through the weekend and into early next week. Multiple days
of record highs will support very low RH with poor overnight
recoveries likely. While surface winds beneath the ridge should
remain light, very deep mixing heights, above 10-15k ft, may allow
for unstable conditions to support plume-dominated fire behavior at
times.

Later in the forecast period, the upper ridge is forecast to shift
eastward as flow aloft over the Pacific begins to turn
southwesterly. A subtle trough/vort max may ride up the western edge
of the ridge into parts of northern California and southern Oregon
by D6/Monday. While model guidance varies, some signal for dry
thunderstorms, or an increase in southwesterly surface winds should
increase the fire danger through next week.

..Lyons.. 07/04/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$