Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA
Issued by NWS State College, PA
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040 FXUS61 KCTP 042124 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 524 PM EDT Thu Jul 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid conditions will prevail through Saturday with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could produce strong winds and heavy rainfall this afternoon and evening, especially in southern PA. Low pressure tracking north of Pennsylvania will drag a cold front east of the state on Saturday, ushering in drier and more comfortable conditions for Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... Late afternoon update. Two areas of showers and storms, one across the north dropping southward, the other near the MD line. Updated weather grids through 00Z. Very warm aloft and weak wind field, has resulted in storms not being all that strong so far. Circulation center over the Ohio Vly something to watch as we head into the evening. Earlier discussion below. A weak, slow-moving and decaying cold front extending from the Finger Lakes to the NW Mtns of PA will gradually drift south through late this afternoon before washing out near or just to the south of the Interstate 80 corridor tonight. Latest mesoanalysis shows MU CAPE of around 2000 J/KG across much of Central and Southern PA ahead of the front where SFC temps have reached the upper 80s/low 90s and dewpoints were in the upper 60s/low 70s. Vertical shear is rather meager, so pulse storms or some multi- cell clusters will be the primary storm mode/threat through this evening. Notable mid level capping with 700 mb temps in the 8.0-9.5C range has challenged the updrafts from growing too strong/deep so far and lightning has been virtually non-existent. Isolated late day strong to SVR TSRA still appears possible given the high CAPE values and local breaks through the aforementioned where LLVL convergence is enhanced along the front, outflow boundaries and terrain features. The presence of +2-3SD pwats will bring the potential for torrential downpours in some parts of Central and Southern PA late this afternoon through about 01Z Friday. The 00Z/12Z HREF indicates localized amounts to 3 inches are possible across the southern tier, but dry ground in this part of the state will limit the flash flood threat. Passage of the shortwave with warm mid level air and nocturnal cooling llvl cooling will result in dwindling convection by later this evening. Slightly cooler air may work into the N Mtns, as the front sags into the central part of the state. Otherwise, expect a very warm and muggy night with min temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. Patchy fog appears likely, especially in locations that receive rainfall today. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... High resolution guidance and the ensemble of its members shows the potential for an area or two of heavy showers lifting NE across the CWA within the warm sector late tonight into Friday morning. Leftover outflow boundaries, increasing/swrly deep layer shear and healthy CAPE in the afternoon will set the stage for more Showers/TSRA later in the day. Previous... The stalled front over Central PA is progged to return north as a warm front Friday PM ahead of low pressure lifting across the Great Lakes. Falling heights and surging pwats ahead of an upstream shortwave and associated surface low lifting across the Great Lakes should bring a round of showers/tsra in the latest Friday PM to Saturday AM timeframe. Model shear/instability profiles indicate strong to severe tsra can`t be ruled out Fri PM. SPC expanded the previous DY2 MRGL risk area for SVR to cover all but the far eastern parts of our CWA. Current guidance suggests the mid level shortwave and bulk of the large scale forcing will pass north of PA, leading to unimpressive mean qpf in the ensemble plumes of 0.25 to 0.50 inches Fri PM to Saturday. However, locally heavier amounts will accompany stronger convection. The Weather Prediction Center has placed all of Pennsylvania in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for 8am Friday through 8am Saturday to account for the multiple rounds of showers and potential for rainfall amounts approaching 2 inches in a few spots. Flash flood guidance across most of the region remains quite high (3" or more in 3 hours), so most of this rainfall should be beneficial. It is also worth noting that heat index values will approach or briefly touch 100F on Friday afternoon in southeast PA. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s combined with high temperatures approaching 90 will result in a very hot and humid afternoon. With scattered convection in the forecast, there is not yet enough confidence to warrant a heat advisory but one may need to be considered if temps/dewpoints trend higher. Overnight lows into Saturday will also be quite mild, ranging from the upper 60s in northwest PA to the middle 70s in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The aforementioned cold front is expected to mostly clear the region by Saturday morning, but some lingering showers across eastern Pennsylvania cannot be ruled out. Thunderstorms are slightly less likely at this time given increased cloud cover and lower instability of the early morning hours, but cannot rule out a thunderstorm across far southeastern Pennsylvania with some elevated instability. After the cold frontal passage, cooler and less humid air will rush in by Sunday morning. All medium range guidance supports fair weather and above average temperatures Sunday into early next week with upper level ridging indicated over the northeast. At the surface, high pressure is progged to build over Pennsylvania Sunday, then pass off of the east coast early next week. The return southerly flow should result in an uptick in heat/humidity early next week. Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms appear possible on Monday based on recent GEFS plumes but guidance continues to suggest a better chance of precipitation on Tuesday with the arrival of a cold front during the afternoon hours. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty with regards to the cold front clearing eastern Pennsylvania later on Wednesday, so have retained PoPs through this timeframe. Towards the end of the period, deterministic guidance begins to outline high pressure influence into the region; however, given so much uncertainty earlier in the forecast period have opted not to deviate from NBM PoPs at this time. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR cu field continues to expand gradually with varying amounts of alto cu and cirrus above. Deep convection has been largely capped across much of Central and Southern PA so far where 700 MB temps (10 KFT MSL) were quite warm and ranged from 8-9.5C. Mid level WSW flow is advecting even slightly warmer air aloft across the Central Ridge and Valley Region of the state. Slightly cooler mid level temps across the northern Mtns and the presence of a slow moving cfront was resulting in a gradually growing area of showers, but so far no lightning in Central/Northern PA. A few well-defined outflow boundaries are surging south from the Nrn PA convection and that should help to initiate additional showers and isolated TSRA further south later this afternoon into early this evening with some very brief MVFR CIG and VSBY restrictions possible. Don`t think that the coverage of any reductions or the threat for gusty winds will be great enough to include as a tempo group at this point, but will monitor the evolution of the convection as we head into the period of peak heating and areal coverage of convection as the cfront and outflow boundaries sage south toward the I-80 corridor. A majority of the convective activity will be out of the region by 03Z Friday. Expect patchy fog to develop across the region overnight tonight with reductions to visby and cigs likely Friday morning. KBFD will likely see the poorest flying conditions (down into the IFR CIG range) later tonight into early Friday for a few to severeal hours. Outlook... Fri...Sct TSRA w/ possible impacts; Mainly PM w/ highest coverage across the west. Sat...Sct to Nmrs TSRA areawide, highest chances SE in PM. Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise, no sig wx. Mon...SHRA possible SE late PM; otherwise, no sig wx. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Banghoff NEAR TERM...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin SHORT TERM...Lambert/Banghoff LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/NPB AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen