266
FXUS64 KCRP 061742
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

No issues to update in the near term as sunny skies and
temperatures warming to 90 to 100F over the forecast area.

The main story remains Beryl with the satellite loops showing more
convection beginning to develop around the center of the vortex.
The expectation is that it will begin intensify over the next 24
hours and push into the Middle Texas Coast by Mon morning (the
earliest reasonable time is Sun evening). With the current track
(roughly near San Antonio Bay for landfall), inland Refugio and
Calhoun counties have been added for Tropical Storm Watch inland
from the current Hurricane Watch along the islands and the coastal
sections of the counties in south Texas. Otherwise, the track and
landfall times haven`t changed much over the last 24 hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness
plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl.

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue into next week.

Focus remains on Tropical Storm Beryl as it has now entered the Gulf
of Mexico and will continue a track toward the Texas coast. Guidance
consistency has improved, with a Middle Texas Coast landfall as a
hurricane becoming more likely. See the latest hurricane local
statement for more details on specifics in the impacts from the
storm.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

This storm will pull off to the north Monday night into Tuesday
leaving quieter conditions but lingering showers and storms as deep
moisture is expected to remain in place. Another tropical wave
passes south of the area mid-week, but development is not expected
associated with that wave.

Near normal temperatures continue today and Sunday, but would expect
cooler temperatures at least east on Monday as the storm makes
landfall. Temperatures increase back to normal through the rest of
the week. Pops for the rest of the week are mainly an enhanced sea
breeze situation with scattered showers/storms as the sea breeze
moves in each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the first 16 hours of the
forecast. Light winds will pose another brief fog threat for ALI
from 10-13Z. Latest model guidance is showing outer rain bands of
Beryl extending into the Coastal Bend around 15-18Z, have
included VCTS to cover this threat. Prevailing TSRA or SHRA will
likely be needed in future packages as confidence increases.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    96  79  93  78 /   0  10  40  50
Victoria          96  75  93  77 /  40  20  50  50
Laredo           101  78 101  79 /   0   0  10  10
Alice             99  76  97  77 /  10   0  40  30
Rockport          95  81  94  79 /  10  10  50  60
Cotulla          102  78 102  79 /  10  10  10   0
Kingsville        97  76  95  77 /   0  10  40  40
Navy Corpus       91  82  90  79 /   0  20  60  60

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.

     Storm Surge Watch for TXZ245-342>347-442-443-447.

     Tropical Storm Watch for TXZ246-247.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ345-442-443-
     447.

GM...Hurricane Watch for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...EMF/94