939
FXUS64 KCRP 051740
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1240 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

- High risk of rip currents is in effect beginning tonight

- Minor coastal flooding may become a concern as early as Saturday as
  long period swell arrives.

Today and Saturday will be our calm before the storm. Today and
tonight will remain rain-free, with isolated showers beginning
across the Victoria Crossroads Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will
continue to be in the 90s along the coast to around 100 over the
Brush Country. Heat index values will range from 105-109 each day.

The effects of Hurricane Beryl will start to reach our coastline
late today/tonight as long period swell moves into our area. Swell
periods of 15s are expected which will contribute to a high rip
current risk along our Gulf facing beaches tonight and Saturday.
While the swell heights are expected to remain low through the short
term, coastal flooding may rapidly become a concern as the 15s swell
arrives. For now, have not issued any headlines for the possibility
of coastal flooding but this may need to be addressed in later
forecast packages.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness
  plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl.

- Rain chances increase Sunday and continue into next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue this weekend into next week.

No substantial changes to the inherited Extended range forecast
early this morning. As of writing, the center of Hurricane Beryl is
close to making landfall in the next few hours over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Beryl is then progged to emerge over the southwestern
Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend.
There remains uncertainty in regards to the actual track and
intensity of Beryl as it approaches the western Gulf coast, with the
3-day error cone extending from the northeastern Mexican coast into
the Corpus Christi area. Nevertheless, preparation for this event
remain in order as several associated hazards could impact the
region as early as tonight and continue through early next week.
Impacts include increased swell heights and periods, potential
coastal flooding, High rip currents risk, and medium to high rain
chances. Per the latest updates to WPC`s QPF guidance, rainfall
amounts of 4-8" with isolated higher amounts will be possible over
South Texas through mid week. WPC has also continued to carry a
Slight risk of excessive rainfall from Sunday through Tuesday
morning over the entire area, indicating at least a 15% chance of
flash flooding. SPC has also introduced a Marginal risk of tornadoes
mainly for the Sunday night to Monday morning period.

Once the system moves through, waves of deeper moisture will aid in
maintaining medium rain chances through the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Skies will remain mostly clear this afternoon. Light to moderate
southeast winds will be in place, with occasional wind gusts to
around 15-20 knots. By evening mostly clear conditions continue,
with winds becoming light and variable overnight. Brief periods of
MVFR VSBYs are possible tomorrow morning over our eastern
terminals due to patchy fog. Conditions should clear by late
morning, giving way to mostly clear conditions with east-
southeast winds of 5-10 kts.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Fri Jul 5 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow will persist through Sunday morning,
gradually increasing throughout the day as Hurricane Beryl
approaches. While uncertainty is still high on timing and actual
track, elevated seas up to 13 feet occasionally to 17 feet can be
expected late this weekend into early next week with strong winds as
Beryl approaches the northeastern Mexico and South Texas coastlines.
Rain chances will increase Sunday with medium to high chances
hanging around through mid to late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    77  94  79  92 /   0  10  10  40
Victoria          76  97  76  94 /  20  30  10  30
Laredo            76 100  78  99 /   0   0   0  10
Alice             74  98  75  96 /   0  10  10  30
Rockport          81  93  82  94 /   0  10  10  40
Cotulla           77 101  78 102 /   0  10   0  10
Kingsville        76  96  78  94 /   0  10  10  40
Navy Corpus       81  91  83  90 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk from 7 PM CDT this evening through
     Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS/77
LONG TERM....ANM/88
AVIATION...KRS/98