391
FXUS64 KCRP 042130
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
430 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Message:

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Friday with heat index
  values 105-110

- High risk of rip currents likely beginning Friday night with
  swell periods over 12 seconds

We`ll have northeasterly flow aloft with Beryl over the Yucatan
Peninsula Friday into Friday night and moisture will be above
normal (near 2.0"). However, there won`t be much lift support to
initiate any convection and therefore have left very low rain
chances at less than 10%. Temperatures will remain very warm
tomorrow with highs from the 90s to around 100 over the Brush
Country under mostly sunny skies. Heat index values will range
from 105-110. Swell periods will increase drastically late Friday
night and lead to significant wave runup and dangerous swimming
conditions. There will likely be a HIGH risk of rip currents in
effect beginning either Friday night or Saturday and continuing
through the Holiday Weekend into early next week.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Key Messages:

- All of South Texas interests should make sure their preparedness
plans are in order and stay informed regarding Beryl.

- Rain chances increase Sunday night and continue into next week.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue this weekend into next week

The long term will focus on Hurricane Beryl, and the uncertainty
with it. As Beryl approaches South Texas, rain chances are expected
expected to increase Sunday along with strong winds most likely
arriving Sunday night into Monday. However, the time of arrival of
winds and rain is still fluid depending on the actual track of
Hurricane Beryl and it`s forward speed after is exits the Yucatan
Peninsula tomorrow afternoon.

As Hurricane Beryl eventually impacts South Texas, we can expect
locally heavy rain with current estimated forecast rainfall amounts
between 7-9" from the Coastal Plains to the Victoria Crossroads and
3-6" across the Brush Country Saturday night through Wednesday
night. Therefore, South Texas is currently under a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall Sunday and Sunday night and a Slight Risk Monday
and Monday night. Expect rainfall forecast rainfall amounts and
excessive rain outlooks to continue changing in the coming days as
we gain better confidence. Another hazard that will be elevated will
be out tornado threat. Due to the angle of approach, increase
friction will enhance the environmental conditions for tornadoes
across the eastern half of the storm.

As for marine hazards, they are expected to begin earlier than the
arrival of the Hurricane. High risk of rip currents are expected to
begin in the short term forecast and continue into this weekend.
Apart from rip currents, coastal flooding is expected to impact the
barrier islands this weekend due to swell periods of 12-14 seconds
and swell heights of 3-4 feet ahead of the storm. Please continue to
check back frequently for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with only a
very low chance of patchy fog development over the inland Coastal
Plains 10-13Z, potentially impacting ALI/VCT. Southeasterly winds
of 12-15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon will
decrease heading into the late evening hours. Kept 6SM haze in the
forecast due to smoke from fireworks area the area.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 PM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024

Weak to moderate south to southeasterly winds will continue
through Sunday morning, gradually increasing throughout the day as
Hurricane Beryl approaches. While uncertainty is still high on
timing and actual track, elevated seas up to 12 feet occasionally
to 15 feet can be expected late this weekend with strong winds as
Beryl approaches South Texas. Rain chances will increase Sunday
night with high chances of rain hanging around through Tuesday of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  95  77  95 /   0   0   0  10
Victoria          76  96  75  95 /   0  10   0  20
Laredo            77 101  76 100 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             76 100  74  99 /   0   0   0  10
Rockport          82  94  81  94 /   0   0   0  20
Cotulla           77 103  77 102 /   0   0   0  10
Kingsville        77  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Navy Corpus       83  92  81  91 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EMF/94
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...EMF/94