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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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885 FXUS64 KCRP 012054 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 354 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Key Messages: -High Risk of Rip Currents currently in effect today through late tonight. Then a moderate risk of rip currents tomorrow morning. -Minor to Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through Tuesday. Expect quiet and settled weather for the short term. The mid-level high and associated 500 mb ridge will slowly migrate eastward today and tomorrow but will maintain a nose into Texas, keeping our region under an easterly flow aloft. This will maintain overall subsidence and will help to moderate temperatures since we won`t be baking underneath the center of the high pressure system. Chances of rain are very low and have kept silent PoP`s in the forecast. As the trough associated with Post Tropical Storm Chris moves westward over Mexico, skies over South Texas are expected to clear, with only Saharan dust resulting in lingering haze this afternoon across the region. Onshore winds will continue to be weak to moderate, turning southwest Tuesday morning. Elevated swells, resulting in a High Rip Current Risk today is expected to slowly subside with a moderate risk of rip currents tomorrow. Afternoon temperatures today and tomorrow will increase slightly, with an average increase of 2-3 degrees. However, moisture levels are decreasing as drier air moves into the region. This will result in a minor to moderate risk of heat-related impacts today and likely continuing tomorrow, despite the warmer temperatures. Heat indices may reach 110 degrees briefly in a few locations but are not expected to maintain these levels long enough to warrant a Heat Advisory. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Key Messages: - Heat Advisory for the Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country this afternoon - Low chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday The mid to upper level ridge will move eastward today and tonight before becoming anchored across the southeast CONUS Friday and expanding horizontally from east to west through the Southern Plains. Before the ridge shifts, a weak shortwave will eject into the Gulf of Mexico on the eastern periphery of the ridge. With the best vorticity associated with the shortwave expected to remain offshore and PWAT of less than 2" over terrestrial areas, showers are not expected this afternoon. Our best chances for showers in the short term will be Friday as a weak inverted trough moves through the area. Due to limited moisture and uncertainty on the strength and placement of the inverted trough, have keep pops on the low end between 20-30% across the Coastal Plains, Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Near normal temperatures are expected to continue today and tomorrow with highs ranging from the low to mid 90s near the coast to near 102 degrees out west. With dewpoints expected to bounce between 78- 80 degrees across the Coastal Plains this afternoon, heat index values will also bounce from 109-113 degrees. Due to that, decided to issue a heat advisory from the Coastal Plains to the northern Brush Country from 1-6 PM this afternoon. Please use caution if outdoors this afternoon and remember to always look before you lock, cars can become ovens in as little as 10-15 minutes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Expecting VFR conditions to prevail this afternoon with a light southeasterly flow. Saharan dust may reduce VSBY`s to MVFR throughout the day. Fog possible again tonight but will be similar to last night so opted to stay with MVFR VSBY`s overnight. The SREF model is indicating up to a moderate chance (45%) of VSBY dropping to less than one mile briefly tomorrow morning, will leave out of TAF for now unless confidence increases. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Weak onshore flow will shift southwesterly late tonight, becoming onshore weak to moderate by tomorrow afternoon. No showers expected but Saharan Dust may linger over the waters reducing visibility down to around 5 nm. Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected to develop Wednesday and continue through the end of the work. Dry conditions are expected through much of the week, however, there is plenty of uncertainty towards the latter half of the week depending on the track and potential impacts from Hurricane Beryl. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 95 78 96 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 96 77 98 75 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 99 77 101 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 98 76 99 75 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 94 81 94 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 101 78 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 77 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 92 81 91 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443- 447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...BF